000 AXNT20 KNHC 160525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strong cold front entering the NW Gulf later today will reach from the Florida panhandle to just north of Tampico Mexico this evening, then move SE of the area Wed. Northerly winds to gale force are possible near Tampico and Veracruz Tue night and Wed, and frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the NW waters today. Strong high pressure will follow the front. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W to 03N15W. The ITCZ extends from 03N15W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate convection from the equator to 04N between 31W and 48W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends across the region, producing mainly gentle to moderate NE-E winds, except fresh NE winds in the SE Gulf. Stratocumulus clouds over the Gulf waters are more concentrated in the southern Gulf. Persistent low clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico. The ridge will slowly move E overnight. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, followed by strong high pressure. Please see Special Features section for more details. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba across Jamaica to near Costa Rica. Scattered showers are noted in association with the frontal boundary S of 16N. Stratocumulus clouds are observed behind the front over the NW Caribbean. Partly cloudy skies and isolated showers are elsewhere E of the front. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front, and moderate trade winds east of the boundary. Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will drift westward through Wed, increasing the likelihood of showers over Central America and the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through Fri night. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters today. ...HISPANIOLA... Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will prevail for the next couple of days. A surface trough passing N of Puerto Rico will produce little convection. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N68W across the Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Strong N to NE winds W of the front will gradually diminish today as the front weakens. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed, then weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening, then become a westward moving trough over the far SE waters Fri. Strong high pres behind the front will induce strong northerly winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas on Thursday. High pressure dominates the remainder of the ocean to Africa. Scatterometer data indicates a large area of fresh to strong trades north of 15N between 20W-40W. A surface trough associated with an upper-level low extends from 30N64W to 22N65W. Another surface trough is SE of an upper-level low centered near 27N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this system is found from 26N-29N between 36W-45W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell