000 AXNT20 KNHC 152354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico... A strong cold front entering the NW Gulf Tue will reach from the Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Tue evening, and move SE of the area on Wed. Northerly winds to gale force are possible near Tampico and Veracruz Tue night and Wed, and frequent gusts to gale force are expected over the NW waters Tue and Tue night. Strong high pressure will follow the front. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Liberia, Africa and continues to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to 02N30W to 03N35W to the Equator at 50W into NE Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is within 90-110 nm N of ITCZ axis between 35W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure over the SE CONUS extends a ridge across the Gulf region, producing mainly gentle to moderate NE-E winds, except fresh northerly winds in the SE Gulf. Stratocumulus clouds over the Gulf waters are more concentrated in the southern Gulf. Persistent low clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre Oriental in Mexico. The ridge will slowly move E tonight. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will persist E of 85W through Tue night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue afternoon followed by a strong high pressure system. Please see Special Features section for more details. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba across Jamaica to the coast of Panama near 09N82W. Scattered showers are noted in association with the frontal boundary S of 17N. Stratocumulus clouds are observed behind the front over the NW Caribbean. Patches of low level clouds with embedded showers elsewhere E of the front are forecast to weaken and dissipate by Tue evening. A recent ASCAT pass indicates fresh to strong N winds behind the front, with strong northerly winds near the coast of Nicaragua. Moisture associated with the remnants of the front will drift westward Tue into Wednesday, increasing the likelihood of showers over Central America and the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through Fri night. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters until Tue evening. ...HISPANIOLA... Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated showers will prevail for the next couple of days. A surface trough passing N of Puerto Rico will produce little convection. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N70W across the Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Strong N to NE winds W of the front will gradually diminish through Tue as the front weakens. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed, then weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening, then become a westward moving trough over the far SE waters Fri. Strong high pres behind the front will bring strong N to NE winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas on Thursday. High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin to the African coast. The most recent satellite-derived wind data indicated a large area of fresh to strong trades from 20N-31N between 20W-60W. A surface trough associated with an upper-level low extends from 29N64W to 23N64W. Fresh to locally strong E-SE winds are NE of the trough due to the pressure gradient between it and the strong mid-Atlantic ridge. A band of showers is well east of the trough, and covers the waters from 20N-22N between 45W-50W, and from 21N-25N between 50W-57W. Another surface trough is SE of another upper-level low centered near 27N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this system is found from 26N-31N between 35W- 43W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell