000 AXNT20 KNHC 151052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 552 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea... A stationary front passes across SE Cuba near 20N77W into the Caribbean Sea to 16N80W to 13N81W to 09N81W. Expect N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 12N to 14N to the W of 82W until around 15Z this morning. Gale force winds along the coast of Nicaragua will diminish to strong by this afternoon, then become moderate Tue through Fri night. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends WSW from the Ivory Coast near 05N05E to 03N10W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 03N25W to 01S34W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 01N to 04N between 13W and 24W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A high pres ridge extending SW over the Gulf will slowly move E through tonight. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds this morning E of 85W will persist through Tue night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue afternoon, reach from the Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Tue evening and move to just SE of the area early on Wed. Gales could occur near Tampico and Veracruz Tue night and Wed. Strong high pres following in the wake of the front will shift E through Thu night and weaken. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front reaching from eastern Cuba near 20N77W to 16N80W to 13N81W to 09N81W will weaken and dissipate by Tue morning. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this boundary is occurring up to 60 nm W of the front and up to 150 nm E of the front. Gale force winds along the coast of Nicaragua will diminish to strong by this afternoon, then become moderate Tue through Fri night. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through Fri night. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters until Tue evening. ...HISPANIOLA... Relatively dry weather will be in store for the next couple of days. Expect partly cloudy skies and isolated showers to prevail. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the stationary front over eastern Cuba will remain there and eventually dissipate as the front weakens in place. A surface trough passing to the N of Puerto Rico will produce little in the way of sensible weather as most of the convection associated with this trough is concentrated on the NE side of the trough. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N72W to 28N74W to 24N75W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Strong N to NE winds W of the front will gradually diminish through Tue as the front weakens. A strong cold front will move off the SE United States coast on Wed, then weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening. The front will become a westward moving trough over the far SE waters Fri. Robust high pres following the front will bring strong N to NE winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas. These conditions will diminish late Thu night through Fri. Otherwise, deep layer high pressure dominates the remainder of the basin between the stationary front and the African coast. This is reflected by a 1044 mb surface high centered west of the Azores near 41N39W. The most recent satellite-derived wind data indicated a large belt of strong trades from 20N to 32N between he coast of Africa and 60W. A surface trough extending from 19N63W to 27N62W is tightening the pressure gradient N of 20N and serves and the focus for scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 60 nm either side of a line from 21N49W to 23N55W to 26N58W. Another surface trough is developing to the SE of another upper-level low centered near 27N40W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection associated with this system is found from 25N to 30N E of 40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy