000 AXNT20 KNHC 150550 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1250 AM EST Mon Jan 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea... A stationary front passes across SE Cuba, into the Caribbean Sea to 17N80W, and 09N81W. Expect N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, from 12N to 14N to the W of 82W. Expect fresh-to-strong NW-to-N winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet ELSEWHERE W of the stationary front. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for more details. ...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 03N24W, crossing the Equator along 32W, to 01N34W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through Louisiana, to 22N96W in the Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Cold air stratocumulus clouds cover a large part of the Gulf of Mexico. The current surface ridge will move E slowly through Monday night. Fresh-to-locally strong N winds will become moderate-to- fresh NE-to-E winds in the Gulf from Monday through Tuesday night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday afternoon. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Mexico on Tuesday evening, and then the front will move to just SE of the area early on Wednesday. It is possible that gale-force winds may occur near Tampico and Veracruz on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strong high pressure following in the wake of the front will shift E through Thursday night and weaken. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes across SE Cuba, into the Caribbean Sea to 17N80W, and 09N81W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the line from the Windward Passage to 16N79W, to 13N81W, to 09N83W along the border of Costa Rica and Panama. Rainshowers also are possible to the NW of the stationary front, in areas of broken low level clouds. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, from 73W eastward, in areas of broken low level clouds in surface tradewind flow. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 15/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.18 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Curacao. A stationary front passes across SE Cuba, into the Caribbean Sea to 17N80W, and 09N81W. The front will weaken and dissipate by Tuesday morning. Gale-force winds along the coast of Nicaragua will become strong winds by Monday afternoon, and then moderate winds from Tuesday through Friday night. Strong winds also will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through Friday night. Large NE swell will maintain seas at heights that are greater than 8 feet in the tropical Atlantic Ocean waters until Tuesday evening. ...HISPANIOLA... The weather conditions that have been occurring during the last 12 hour or so have consisted of the following: scattered low level clouds, some cumulonimbus clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers with possible thunder. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a ridge will bring anticyclonic wind flow to the area for the next two days. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that N-to-NE wind flow will move across the area during the next two days, around a Windward Passage/Hispaniola anticyclonic circulation center. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow will move across the area with an inverted trough, for at least the next 36 hours or so. E-to-SE wind flow will move across for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N71W, across the central Bahamas, and beyond SE Cuba, into the Caribbean Sea. Strong N to NE winds W of the front will diminish gradually through Tuesday as the front weakens. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N69W to 26N72W to 23N74W, and to SE Cuba. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N59W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between 50W and 70W. A surface trough is along 60W from 17N to 25N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 20N to 29N between 50W and 62W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between Africa and 55W. A 1043 mb high pressure center is near 40N40W. A strong cold front will move off the SE United States coast on Wednesday, and then it will weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thursday evening. The front will become a westward moving trough in the far SE waters on Friday. Robust high pressure following the front will bring strong N to NE winds and building seas NE of the Bahamas. These conditions will diminish late Thursday night through Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT