000 AXNT20 KNHC 150005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N27W, to the Equator along 32W, 01N40W, to the Equator along 47W, and into NE Brazil near 01S50W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through central Texas, to the coastal plains of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to Honduras. Cold air stratocumulus clouds cover much of the Gulf of Mexico, except for maybe the NW corner of the area. A first cold front passes through 32N71W in the Atlantic Ocean, through central Cuba, to the northern sections of Nicaragua. Reinforcing cold air, that has been moving through the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico during the last 24 hours, is behind a second cold front that is within 130 nm to the NW of the first front on the northern end, and within 280 nm to the NW of the first front on the southern end near NW Cuba. High pres stretching from the NE United States southwestward over the area will slowly move eastward through Mon night. Fresh to locally strong N winds will become moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf Mon through Tue night. A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Tue afternoon, reach from the Florida panhandle to near 26N91W and to just N of Tampico Tue evening and move to just SE of the area early on Wed. Its western portion will be left behind as a trough over the far western gulf. A large area of strong high pres in the wake of the front will shift eastward through Thu night and weaken. The trough over the western gulf will lift northward near the southern and central Texas coast Thu night through Fri night, possibly attendant by low pres. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through SE Cuba to 17N80W and 10N81W. A surface trough is along the line from western Jamaica, to 15N78W and 11N77W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the line from SE Cuba, to 15N80W to 09N82W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, from 73W eastward, in areas of broken low level clouds in surface tradewind flow. A stationary front extend eastern Cuba near 21N77W to 17N80W to 10N82W will weaken through Mon night. Strong to near gale force N winds will continue along the coast of Nicaragua through Monday, then diminish to strong winds Tue morning, and to moderate to fresh winds during Thu and through Fri night. Otherwise, strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night through the period. Large NE swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters through early Tue evening. ...HISPANIOLA... The weather conditions that have been occurring during the last 12 hour or so have consisted of the following: scattered low level clouds, some cumulonimbus clouds, and isolated moderate rainshowers with possible thunder. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a ridge will bring anticyclonic wind flow to the area for the next two days. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that N-to-NE wind flow will move across the area during the next two days, around a Windward Passage anticyclonic circulation center. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that the first two- thirds of day one will consist of anticyclonic wind flow with an Atlantic Ocean- to-Hispaniola ridge. The rest of day one and all of day two will consist of NE wind flow, and finally cyclonic wind flow, as an inverted trough moves across Hispaniola from east to west. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 20N59W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 10N northward between 50W and 70W. A surface trough is along 59W/60W from 17N to 25N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 20N to 28N between 50W and 60W. Strong central Atlantic Ocean high pressure will shift eastward slowly through Wednesday. A stationary front currently passes through 32N71W, across the central Bahamas, and beyond SE Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 90 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N69W to 25N72W, beyond SE Cuba. A cold front will sweep across the NW waters quickly tonight and on Monday, and it will merge with the first front on Monday night. Strong N to NE winds in much of the western part of the area will diminish gradually through Tuesday. A strong cold front will move off the SE United States coast on Wednesday, and then it will weaken as it reaches from near 27N65W to the SE Bahamas by Thursday evening. The front becomes a westward moving trough in the far SE waters on Friday. This front also will be followed by strong high pressure and resultant strong N to NE winds along with building seas NE of the Bahamas. These conditions will diminish late on Thursday night through Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT