000 AXNT20 KNHC 141201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 701 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea... A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to 18N80W to the SW Caribbean near 11N83W. The front will push slowly SE then stall from E Cuba to western Panama tonight. Strong N winds are expected W of the front today and tonight. Winds will be minimal gale force along the coast of Nicaragua until this afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 ft within these winds. The most recent scatterometer pass confirmed the presence of strong to minimal gale force winds behind the front, particularly between 12N-16N. Please see the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through southern/coastal sections of Ghana, the Ivory Coast, and beyond 05N09W in Liberia, to 04N16W and 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01N27W, to the Equator along 32W, and along the Equator to 39W. Precipitation: scattered strong rainshowers from 05N to 07N between 36W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 08N southward from 56W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the SE CONUS into the Gulf of Mexico. Cold air stratocumulus clouds cover much of the Gulf region. Reinforcing cold air is moving across the eastern half of the Gulf in the wake of a secondary front currently located over the NW Bahamas and western Cuba. The ridge will slowly migrate E through Mon night. Fresh to locally strong N winds will become moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the Gulf Mon and Tue. Another cold front will cross the Gulf Tue night through Wed night. Strong winds behind the front will become moderate to fresh by Thu night. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to 18N80W to the SW Caribbean near 11N83W. Please, see SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details about the winds and the sea heights to be associated with the cold front. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are moving from the Gulf of Mexico into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is ahead of the front, and extends along 77W/78W from 12N, crossing the western part of Jamaica, toward E Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are associated with this trough, and ahead the frontal boundary affecting eastern Cuba, and the central Caribbean mainly N of 13N between 75W and 80W. Strong winds will pulse near the NW Colombia coast each night. Large swell will maintain seas above 8 ft in the tropical Atlc waters through Tue. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated to scattered passing showers are expected across the island today under the influence of a ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 0600 UTC, a cold front extends from 31N72W across the central Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and tstms are along the frontal boundary. A secondary front stretches from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and western Cuba. The fronts are forecast to merge today. The merging cold front will slow down and stall from 31N71W to E Cuba by this evening. A large area of cloudiness with embedded showers and tstms is over the central Atlantic, and covers mainly the waters from 20N-28N between 50W-57W. This convective activity is related to an upper-level low. A surface trough developed in association with this low since yesterday, and now extends along 52W from 17N-25N. The pressure gradient between this trough and strong high pressure to the N is producing fresh to strong easterly winds across the central Atlantic N of 20N. As previously mentioned, a strong high pressure of 1043 mb located N of the area near 38N44W dominates the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean. This system will shift eastward over the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR