000 AXNT20 KNHC 130005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The Ivory Coast near 05N05W, to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W to 02N20W, to the Equator along 38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 03N southward between 11W and 14W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers elsewhere from 08N southward between 09W and 42W. One upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Senegal near 15N13W. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N43W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N southward between 40W and 60W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 23N between 30W and 44W. rainshowers are possible from 08N to 22N between 37W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is that digging through Alabama, the SE U.S.A., and the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, is supporting a current cold front that is passing through: the Florida Panhandle, into the S central Gulf of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough is about 120 nm to the east of the cold front, from the Yucatan Peninsula northward, beyond the Florida Big Bend. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery. Rainshowers are possible, in broken low level clouds that cover the area from 21N from 95W eastward, including across Florida and into the coastal waters on the Atlantic Ocean side of Florida. A strong cold front from the Florida Panhandle will move rapidly E across the remainder of the basin today, with strong winds expected W of the front. Reinforcing cold air will move through the eastern Gulf on Saturday. High pres will build behind the front late this weekend. Another cold front will cross the Gulf beginning on Tuesday night. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is in the west central part of the area, along 81W/83W from 11N to 17N. Rainshowers are possible from 13N southward from 80W westward. The southernmost part of a surface trough is in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Rainshowers are in the NW part of the Caribbean Sea, from 15N northward from 80W westward. A second surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, along 09N from N Colombia beyond W Panama. Rainshowers are possible from 12N southward, from 75W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, from 80W eastward, in areas of broken low level clouds. Many of these areas of clouds are moving toward the W and NW. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 12/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 1.13 in Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.13 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.08 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. and 0.04 in Guadeloupe and in Trinidad. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach the Yucatan Channel this evening, extending from central Cuba to eastern Honduras on Saturday morning, then stalling from E Cuba to Costa Rica on Saturday night. Fresh to locally strong N winds are expected behind the front on Saturday, increasing to 20-30 kt on Sunday. Strong winds will pulse near NW Colombia coast each night. Large swell will affect tropical Atlc waters through Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Strong high pressure centered in the central Atlantic will shift eastward today. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move across Florida this evening and extend from 31N72W to E Cuba on Sunday. Reinforcing cold air will help push the front SE on Sunday night and Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT