000 AXNT20 KNHC 120602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends from central Louisiana SW to near Tuxpan, Mexico. A strong pressure gradient between the front and a strong ridge building across the central United States supports strong to gale-force northwesterly winds in the northwestern Gulf waters behind the front. Gale-force winds will spread to the southwest Gulf through Friday evening. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W to 02N22W to 02N33W. The ITCZ continues from 02N33W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate rain showers are from 03S to 04N E of 05W, from 04S to 06N between 23W and 32W, and from 02N to 06N between 38W and 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh return flow is over the eastern half of the Gulf ahead of a cold front that extends from central Louisiana SW to near Tuxpan, Mexico. Gale-force NW winds to 45 kt are behind the cold front over the NW basin waters as indicated by the latest scatterometer pass. Strong to gale-force winds will spread to the SW Gulf waters through Friday evening. A reinforcing cold front will move across the north-central and NE basin during the evening hours and across Florida Sat. Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will start to diminish Sat. See the special features section for further details on the front and the gale. CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep layer dry air over the NW Caribbean support fair weather. Southwesterly flow aloft continue to advect moisture from the EPAC and northern South America into the central Caribbean, thus supporting cloudiness with possible isolated showers for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as well as adjacent southern waters. Shallow moisture in the tradewind flow support isolated showers in the Lesser Antilles. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh winds in the eastern half of the basin and light to gentle ESE flow in the western half of it. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean waters Friday night with fresh to strong winds. The front will then stall from eastern Cuba SW to NE Nicaragua adjacent waters Sat evening. A strong pressure gradient developing over northern Central America will support near gale-force winds behind the front continuing through Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Southwesterly flow aloft supports cloudiness and possible isolated showers across the island and southern adjacent waters. In the northern waters, upper level diffluence in the SW N Atlc waters support scattered showers NE of the Dominican Republic. This activity is forecast to continue through early Sat morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Diffluent flow generated by a short-wave trough over the Bahamas and a ridge to the east of it continue to support scattered heavy showers NE of the central Bahamas from 23N to 28N between 71W and 75W. These showers extends to NE Dominican Republic adjacent waters. Farther east, a broad middle to upper level trough support a cold front that enters the north-central Atlc waters near 30N36W continuing SW to 25N48W. Scattered to isolated showers are within 120 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise, surface ridging dominates the remaining Atlc waters N of 10N. The next cold front will come off Florida tonight, will extend from near 30N72W across the central Bahamas to north-central Cuba Sat night and then stall. A reinforcing cold front will follow the leading front and move across Florida Sat then merge with the leading front Sat night over the SW N Atlc waters. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos