000 AXNT20 KNHC 120005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico later tonight with convection. A strong pressure gradient will develop between the ridge behind the front and lower pressure associated with the front, which will support strong to gale-force northerly winds in the northwestern Gulf waters by late tonight. Gale force winds will spread to the southwest Gulf through Friday evening. The cold front will enter the NW Caribbean waters Saturday morning with fresh to strong winds. The front will then stall from eastern Cuba SW to NE Nicaragua adjacent waters Sat evening. A strong pressure gradient developing over northern Central America will support gale-force winds behind the front from 10N to 14N during that time continuing through Sunday. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa from 08N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 05N37W to 03N51W. Scattered showers are from 02S to 10N between 20W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh return flow is basin-wide ahead of the next cold front to enter the NW Gulf basin later tonight. A pre- frontal trough is analyzed from 29N95W to 25N97W with no convection. Strong to gale-force winds will accompany the cold front and will spread to the SW Gulf waters through Friday evening. A reinforcing cold front will move across the north- central and NE basin Friday evening and across Florida Sat. Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will start to diminish early on Monday. See the special features section for further details on the front and the gale. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across western Caribbean from 21N86W to 17N84W to 14N82W with scattered showers. An upper-level low centered over the Bahamas extends its trough along and west of 80W supporting this surface feature. Scattered showers prevail across eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage and Hispaniola supported by a diffluent flow aloft. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central and eastern waters, while light to gentle variable winds cover the western portion of the basin. Showers will prevail across the northwest Caribbean through today. The next cold front will enter the basin early this weekend with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between an upper-level low centered in the Great Bahama Bank and a ridge covering the eastern half of the Caribbean support scattered showers across most of the island. This activity is forecast to continue through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers prevail over the west Atlantic waters underneath a broad area of upper-level low pressure and a diffluent flow aloft. To the east, the tail of a cold front enters the north-central Atlantic waters near 31N43W to 29N52W, then weakens to 30N69W. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails anchored by a 1033 mb high near 36N14W. Expect for the cold front over the central Atlantic to move further south with showers. The next cold front will come off northeast Florida by early this weekend with a reinforcing cold front following it on Saturday night. The front is forecast to extend from near 30N71W southwest to eastern Cuba by Sunday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ NR