000 AXNT20 KNHC 111800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front will enter the northwest Gulf of Mexico this evening with convection. A strong pressure gradient will develop between the ridge behind the front and lower pressures with the front, supporting strong to gale-force northerly winds in the northwestern Gulf waters by late tonight, then extending to the southwest Gulf on Friday. See the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia, Africa near 06N11W to 00N26W. The ITCZ continues from 00N26W to 00N40W to 06N53W. Scattered showers are noted within 500 nm north of these boundaries between 19W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface high pressure over the west Atlantic waters extends its ridge across the basin. A low pressure system is developing over the northern Texas area and extending south reaching the northwest Gulf waters north of 21N and west of 95W. A surface trough was analyzed across the Texas coastline and northeast Mexico with no significant convection. To the east, a surface trough extends across the Florida Peninsula with scattered showers. The next cold front is forecast to enter the northwest portion of the basin by late tonight along with strong to gale- force winds that will prevail mainly across the western Gulf. A reinforcing cold front will follow this feature moving across Florida this weekend. Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will diminish by early next week. See the Special Features section above for details about the gale-force winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across western Caribbean from 21N86W to 17N84W to 14N82W with scattered showers. An upper-level low centered over the Bahamas extends its trough along and west of 80W supporting this surface feature. Scattered showers prevail across eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage and Hispaniola supported by a diffluent flow aloft. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central and eastern waters, while light to gentle variable winds cover the western portion of the basin. Showers will prevail across the northwest Caribbean through today. The next cold front will enter the basin early this weekend with convection. ...HISPANIOLA... A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between an upper-level low centered in the Great Bahama Bank and a ridge covering the eastern half of the Caribbean support scattered showers across most of the island. This activity is forecast to continue through tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers prevail over the west Atlantic waters underneath a broad area of upper-level low pressure and a diffluent flow aloft. To the east, the tail of a cold front enters the north-central Atlantic waters near 31N43W to 29N52W, then weakens to 30N69W. Elsewhere, a surface ridge prevails anchored by a 1033 mb high near 36N14W. Expect for the cold front over the central Atlantic to move further south with showers. The next cold front will come off northeast Florida by early this weekend with a reinforcing cold front following it on Saturday night. The front is forecast to extend from near 30N71W southwest to eastern Cuba by Sunday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA