000 AXNT20 KNHC 110006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 706 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Strong surface high pressure will build across the central United States by tonight behind a cold front that will extend from the Great Lakes SW to eastern Texas to NE Mexico. The front is forecast to exit the coast of Texas early Friday, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening and move across the Straits of Florida Sat evening. A strong pressure gradient between the ridge and the front will lead to the development of strong to gale force northerly winds in the NW Gulf early on Friday...extending to the SW Gulf during the evening hours. See latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia, Africa near 05N09W to 04N12W. The ITCZ continues from 04N12W to 0N38W. Isolated rain showers are from 0N to 10N between 13W and 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface low pressure dominates the Gulf waters with a remnant surface trough extending from SE Louisiana to the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters. GOES-16 water vapor imagery show generally deep layer dry air across the basin, which is hindering convection at this time. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW basin Thu night along with strong to gale force winds that will extend to the SW basin through Friday evening. See the special features section for further details. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated showers cover most of the NW Caribbean waters. These showers are associated with a surface trough extending from 21N81W to Nicaragua adjacent waters and middle to upper level diffluent flow between the base of a short-wave trough over the Straits of Florida and ridging aloft to the east. The area of diffluent flow is broad enough to cover Hispaniola where isolated showers are occurring. Shallow moisture embedded in the tradewind flow support similar shower activity for eastern Puerto Rico, the USVI and adjacent waters. In the SW basin, a surface trough crossing Panama to NW Colombia support isolated showers S of 12N. Otherwise, deep layer dry air support fair weather elsewhere. Moderate winds are across the central and eastern waters with slightly higher winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. Showers will continue in the NW Caribbean through Thu. The next cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sat night. ...HISPANIOLA... A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between the base of a short- wave trough over the Florida Straits and a ridge covering the eastern Caribbean support overcast skies and isolated showers across most of the island. This activity is forecast to continue through Thu evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between a short-wave trough along the Florida Peninsula and a ridge covering the SW N Atlc waters support scattered moderate rain showers across the central and northern Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the Straits of Florida. These showers extends beyond the northern Bahamas to near 32N between 69W and 79W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high near 34N20W covers the remainder central and eastern Atlc. The tail of a cold front will enter the far northern waters tonight and move further south over the north-central Atlc waters by Friday night. The next cold front will come off NE Florida by Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos