000 AXNT20 KNHC 101804 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Strong surface high pressure will build across the central United States by Thursday night, behind a cold front that will extend from the Great Lakes SW to eastern Texas to NE Mexico. The front is forecast to exit the coast of Texas early Friday, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening and move across the Straits of Florida Sat evening. A strong pressure gradient between the ridge and the front will lead to the development of strong to gale force W-to-NW winds in the NW Gulf early on Friday...extending to the SW Gulf during the evening hours. See latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The Ivory Coast near 05N05W, to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W to 02N20W, to the Equator along 38W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers from 03N southward between 11W and 14W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers elsewhere from 08N southward between 09W and 42W. One upper level cyclonic circulation center is in Senegal near 15N13W. A second upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N43W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N southward between 40W and 60W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 23N between 30W and 44W. rainshowers are possible from 08N to 22N between 37W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is digging through the area that encompasses Florida, the easternmost sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, including enveloping Cuba. Upper level moisture that is accompanying this trough is covering Florida, the Bahamas, Cuba, and the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward. A 1015 mb low pressure center is in the Gulf of Mexico near 26N87W. One surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low center, into the south central Gulf of Mexico. A second surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low pressure center, toward SE Louisiana. A third surface trough is in the waters that are between the Bahamas and Florida, from Cuba near 22N77W, to 28N80W, and curving beyond 32N79W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 84W eastward, including across Florida. Broken to overcast low level clouds are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico from 21N northward from 85W westward. The 1015 mb low pressure center will drift SW today, while also becoming a remnant trough, and then it will dissipate by early Thursday. A strong cold front will enter the NW waters on Thursday, rapidly shifting across the basin through the end of the week. Gale-force winds are possible W of the front in the western Gulf on Thursday night through Friday morning. A reinforcing front will move through the eastern Gulf on Saturday. High pres will build in the wake of the fronts for the remainder of the weekend. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is in the westernmost part of the area, from NW Cuba to eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the W and NW of the line that runs from SE Cuba to 11N81W, to the east of SE Nicaragua. just to the south of Cuba, from 19N northward between 79W and 81W. Other rainshowers are possible from 80W westward. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the area, along 11N75W- Panama-08N84W, from NW Colombia westward, across Panama, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainshowers are possible from 11N southward, from 76W westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, from 77W eastward, in areas of broken low level clouds. Many of these areas of clouds are moving toward the W and NW. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 10/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.53 in Freeport in the Bahamas, 0.38 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.18 in Guadeloupe, 0.10 in Trinidad, 0.06 in Kingston in Jamaica, 0.04 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, and 0.03 in San Juan in Puerto Rico. A western Caribbean Sea surface trough will drift NW through mid- week. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean on Friday, and then it will stall from eastern Cuba to southern Costa Rica on Saturday night through Sunday night. It is possible that gale- force winds may develop in the SW Caribbean to the W of the front late on Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Residual moisture from the surface trough and frontal boundary of the last few days, and other westward-moving broken low level clouds, may help to support rainshowers across Hispaniola for the next 24 hours or so. Moderate to fresh SE winds between Cuba and Jamaica will become NE-to-E gentle-to- moderate winds tonight. A cold front should move SE of the Yucatan Channel on Friday, with winds becoming N moderate to fresh, N of 18N between 76W and 85W. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Fri, then will stall from eastern Cuba to southern Costa Rica Sat night through Sun night. Expect upper level SW-to-W wind flow during the next 2 days. Expect middle level SE-to-S wind flow during the next 2 days. Expect 700 mb level SE wind flow during the next 2 days. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers are to the south of the line that runs from 16N60W to 11N50W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean, from 10N northward from 60W eastward. A 1033 mb high pressure center is near 34N25W. The current surface trough that is extending from just to the east of Jacksonville to central Cuba will drift over Florida by Thursday night. High pressure will build in the wake of the trough. A cold front will move off the E coast of Florida on Friday night, with a reinforcing front moving across the waters W of 72W through Sun night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT