000 AXNT20 KNHC 101205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Strong surface high pressure will build across the central United States by Thu night behind a cold front that will extend from the Great Lakes SW to eastern Texas to NE Mexico. The front is forecast to exit the coast of Texas early Friday, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening and move across the Straits of Florida Sat evening. A strong pressure gradient between the ridge and the front will lead to the development of strong to gale force W-to-NW winds in the NW Gulf early on Friday...extending to the SW Gulf during the evening hours. See latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia, Africa near 05N09W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 02N30W to 0N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 06N southward between 20W and 40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 07N southward between 09W and 13W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 mb low pressure center is near 26N87W. One surface trough extends into the central Gulf of Mexico. A second surface trough extends toward SE Louisiana. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are in the SE corner, from 26N southward from 85W eastward. Broken to overcast low level clouds are elsewhere from 21N northward from 85W westward. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW basin Thu night along with strong-to-gale force winds, that will extend to the SW corner of the basin through Friday evening. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for further details. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is in the westernmost part of the area, from NW Cuba to eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua. Scattered strong rainshowers are just to the south of Cuba, from 19N northward between 79W and 81W. Other rainshowers are possible from 80W westward. Isolated moderare rainshowers are elsewhere, from 77W eastward, in areas of broken low level clouds. Many of these areas of clouds are moving northwestward. A surface trough is along 09N/10N, from NW Colombia westward, beyond Panama and Costa Rica. Rainshowers are possible from 11N southward, from 76W westward. The next cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sat night. ...HISPANIOLA... A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between the base of a short- wave trough in the NW Caribbean and a ridge covering the remainder basin support overcast skies and isolated showers across most of the island. This activity is forecast to continue through Thu evening. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between a short-wave trough in the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge covering the SW N Atlc waters support scattered moderate rain showers across the central and northern Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the Straits of Florida. These showers extends beyond the northern Bahamas to near 32N between 69W and 79W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high near 33N34W covers the remainder central and eastern Atlc. The tail of a cold front will enter the far northern waters today and move further south over the north-central Atlc waters by Friday night. The next cold front will come off NE Florida by Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos