000 AXNT20 KNHC 100603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Strong surface high pressure will build across the central United States by Thu night behind a cold front that will extend from the Great Lakes SW to eastern Texas to NE Mexico. The front is forecast to exit the coast of Texas early Friday, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri evening and move across the Straits of Florida Sat evening. A strong pressure gradient between the ridge and the front will lead to the development of strong to gale force northerly winds in the NW Gulf early on Friday...extending to the SW Gulf during the evening hours. See latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia, Africa near 05N09W to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 02N30W to 0N40W. Scattered moderate rain showers are within 175 nm either side of the ITCZ and from 0N to 05N between 05W and 19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface low pressure dominates across the Gulf being anchored by a 1016 mb low in the SE basin near 25N86W. A middle to upper level short-wave trough supports this feature from which a dissipating cold front extends SW towards and across the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. A pair of surface troughs extends also from the low, one extending NW to SE Louisiana near 29N89W and another extending SW to the central Gulf near 23N90W to 24N93W. GOES-16 water vapor imagery show generally deep layer dry air across the basin, which is hindering convection at this time. Otherwise, radar imagery show scattered to isolated showers in the Florida Straits associated with middle to upper level diffluent flow and a surface trough moving across western Cuba. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW basin Thu night along with strong to gale force winds that will extend to the SW basin through Friday evening. See the special features section for further details. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to isolated showers cover most of the NW Caribbean waters. These showers are associated with a surface trough extending from 20N78W to 12N82W and middle to upper level diffluent flow between the base of a short-wave trough over the Gulf of Mexico and ridging aloft to the east. The area of diffluent flow is broad enough to cover Hispaniola where isolated showers are occurring. Shallow moisture embedded in the tradewind flow support similar shower activity for eastern Puerto Rico, the USVI and adjacent waters. In the SW basin, a surface trough crossing Panama to NW Colombia support isolated showers S of 12N. Otherwise, deep layer dry air support fair weather elsewhere. Moderate winds are across the central and eastern waters with slightly higher winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. Showers will continue in the NW Caribbean through Thu. The next cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sat night. ...HISPANIOLA... A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between the base of a short- wave trough in the NW Caribbean and a ridge covering the remainder basin support overcast skies and isolated showers across most of the island. This activity is forecast to continue through Thu evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of diffluent flow aloft between a short-wave trough in the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge covering the SW N Atlc waters support scattered moderate rain showers across the central and northern Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the Straits of Florida. These showers extends beyond the northern Bahamas to near 32N between 69W and 79W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high near 33N34W covers the remainder central and eastern Atlc. The tail of a cold front will enter the far northern waters today and move further south over the north-central Atlc waters by Friday night. The next cold front will come off NE Florida by Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos