000 AXNT20 KNHC 090600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 03N30W to 01N41W. Scattered moderate rain showers are within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W and 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 mb surface low is located over SE Louisiana near 30N90W. A cold front extends southward from a triple point at 31N88W to 26N89W to 20N97W. A surface trough is just ahead of the front from 31N87W to 26N87W. Water vapor imagery shows an upper low digging into the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Diffluent wind flow aloft is enhancing multi-layer cloudiness and embedded showers north of 25N and east of 88W. The low and front will weaken as they continue moving SE today. The front will gradually becoming a remnant trough by early Wednesday. The trough will also dissipate, with return flow setting up and becoming dominant across the basin Wednesday and Thursday. The next cold front will reach the NW part of the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday afternoon and move rapidly across the area through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening surface trough reaches from the Windward Passage to SW of Jamaica to 17N81W. A second surface trough extends SSW of Haiti to 14N77W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong showers are from 17N to 20N between 74W and 80W, including Haiti and Jamaica. Isolated showers are elsewhere across the basin. A cold front should move SE of the Yucatan Channel on Friday with winds becoming fresh to strong NW. Fresh to strong winds north of 18N between the Windward Passage and 83W will diminish tonight. High pressure centered northeast of the area will slide eastward and weaken through Friday. This will allow winds and seas to improve today and tonight across the north central and NW Caribbean Sea. ...HISPANIOLA... The moisture from the dissipating stationary front and surface trough along with a second surface trough to the south will support showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island today. High pressure to the north will support NE 20 to 25 kt winds, with 8-12 ft seas in the area including in the approach to the Windward Passage, during the next 24 hours or so. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extending from 31N51W to the Windward Passage is drifting west and weakening. Widely scattered showers are within 240 nm of the frontal boundary. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean north of 10N. A high pressure ridge is along 30N, anchored by highs centered near 30N47W and 30N37W. Diffluent wind flow aloft is enhancing multi-layer cloudiness and embedded showers from 12N to 21N between 34W and 45W. During the next 24 hours, 20 to 25 knots NE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are expected in an area south of 10N between 40W and 55W. Winds will diminish as the pressure gradient begins to weaken. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell