000 AXNT20 KNHC 082355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W to 03N24W. The ITCZ continues from 03N24W to 01N37W. Isolated moderate rain showers are south of 06N east of 40W. Cyclonic wind flow associated with an upper level cyclone center near 14N48W covers the Atlantic Ocean from 07N to 24N between 34W and 55W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rain showers are from 10N to 24N between 30W and 50W, and elsewhere south of 10N between 30W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The water vapor imagery shows a trough digging through the western part of the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is supporting a cold front that passes from a 1012 low in SE Louisiana to NE Mexico. A surface trough just ahead of the front extends from the low to 28N88W to 27N91W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong rain showers are in the Gulf of Mexico between Florida and 94W, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 74W westward. The low and front will weaken as they continue SE into Tuesday morning. The front will drift S through Tuesday night, while gradually becoming a remnant trough into early Wednesday. The trough will drift W through Wednesday night while dissipating, with return flow then dominating through early Thursday. The next cold front may enter the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday afternoon, moving rapidly across the area through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough reaches from the Windward Passage to west of Jamaica to 15N81W, then southward to 10N81W. A second surface trough extends SSW of Haiti to 13N76W. Scattered strong showers are from 17N to 19N between Haiti and Jamaica. Isolated moderate showers are elsewhere to the NW of a line that runs from the Mona Passage to 09N82W at the coast of western Panama. High pres in the central Atlantic Ocean will build westward in the wake of the current surface trough. A weak cold front may move SE of the Yucatan Channel on Friday with a wind shift. Fresh to strong winds north of 18N between the Windward Passage and 83W will diminish tonight. The current high pressure center, that is to north of the area, will be sliding eastward and weakening. This shift will allow for winds and seas to improve later this afternoon/tonight across the north central and NW Caribbean Sea. ...HISPANIOLA... The moisture from the dissipating stationary front/surface trough, and a second surface trough will support showers and isolated thunderstorms across the island through tonight. High pressure to the north will support NE 20 to 25 kt winds, with 8- 12 ft seas in the area including in the approach to the Windward Passage, during the next 24 hours or so. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N48W to the Windward Passage. Widely scattered moderate and isolated strong showers are within 180 nm NW of the frontal boundary, and from 20N to 24N between 60W and 77W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward to the stationary front eastward. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 30N37W. The forecast for the next 24 hours consists of NE winds 20 to 25 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 to 12 feet in an area that is bounded by the points from 22N77W to 29N60W to 29N60W to 20N73W to 22N77W. Winds will diminish as the pressure gradient begins to weaken. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell