000 AXNT20 KNHC 081754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1254 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 07N11W, to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 01N37W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 06N southward from 40W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 14N48W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 07N to 24N between 34W and 55W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 10N to 24N between 30W and 50W, and elsewhere from 10N southward between 30W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The water vapor imagery shows a trough digging through the western part of the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is supporting a cold front that passes through SW Louisiana to the Deep South of Texas. A surface trough extends from a SW Louisiana 1012 mb low pressure center, toward NE Mexico about 60 nm to the south of the cold front. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico between Florida and 94W, and in the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward from 74W westward. The low and front will weaken as they continue SE into Tuesday morning. The front will drift S through Tuesday night, while gradually becoming a remnant trough into early Wednesday. The trough will drift W through Wednesday night while dissipating, with return flow then dominating through early Thursday. The next cold front may enter the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday afternoon, moving rapidly across the area through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front reaches the SE Bahamas and the Windward Passage. A surface trough continues from the Windward Passage, to western sections of Jamaica, to 15N81W, and 10N81W. A second surface trough is along 19N73W in Haiti, to 16N75W and 13N76W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 17N to 19N between Haiti and Jamaica. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere to the NW of the line that runs from the Mona Passage to 09N82W at the coast of western Panama. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in areas of broken low level clouds, elsewhere to the east of the Mona Passage-to-09N82W line. High pres in the central Atlantic Ocean will build in the wake of the current surface trough. A cold front may move SE of the Yucatan Channel on Friday. The current fresh-to-strong breezes that have been covering the area from 18N northward between the Windward Passage and 83W, will be slowing down to moderate, by tonight. The current high pressure center, that is to north of the area, will be sliding eastward and weakening. This shift will allow for winds and seas to improve later this afternoon/tonight across the north central and NW Caribbean Sea. ...HISPANIOLA... A dissipating stationary front/surface trough passes through the Windward Passage. A second surface trough is along 19N73W in Haiti, to 16N75W and 13N76W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 17N to 19N between Haiti and Jamaica. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere to the NW of the line that runs from the Mona Passage to 09N82W at the coast of western Panama. The moisture from the dissipating stationary front/surface trough, and the second surface trough, will support rainshowers and thunderstorms across the island through at least tonight. High pressure to the north will support NE 20 to 25 kt winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, in the area that is bounded by the points from 22N77W to 29N60W to 29N60W to 20N73W to 22N77W, including in the approach to the Windward Passage, during the next 24 hours or so. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front from 32N49W to 28N56W. The front becomes dissipating stationary at 28N56W, and it continues to 24N64W, and to the northern part of the Windward Passage. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are within 60 nm to 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N55W to 27N62W to 24N66W, and from 20N to 24N between 60W and 77W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean, from 10N northward from the cold front/dissipating stationary front eastward. A 1028 mb high pressure center is near 30N40W. The forecast for the next 24 hours consists of NE winds 20 to 25 knots, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, in the area that is bounded by the points from 22N77W to 29N60W to 29N60W to 20N73W to 22N77W. The wind speeds will slow down, to moderate, as the surface pressure gradient begins to weaken in 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT