000 AXNT20 KNHC 081204 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 02N34W, crossing the Equator along 42W, to 01S45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers from 06N southward from 36W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 14N47W. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 07N to 23N between 34W and 54W. broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 18N southward between 30W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the basin anchored by a strong high pressure of 1037 mb located near 36N77W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure to the north and lower pressures over the Caribbean and Mexico support fresh to strong easterly winds over the Straits of Florida and eastern two-thirds of the Gulf basin. Mainly moderate to fresh east to southeast winds prevail elsewhere. Expect for the next cold front to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts later today with an accompanying low pressure area emerging over the north central Gulf tonight. Fresh northerly winds and building seas of 5-6 ft are expected west of the low and cold front. The front, low, and associated winds will weaken on Tuesday. A stronger cold front will cross the western Gulf on Thursday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through the Windward Passage, to western sections of Jamaica, to 15N81W, and continuing as a surface trough to 10N81W. Rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm on either side of the front. Observations continue to indicate near gale to gale-force winds across the Windward Passage and approaches. Strong to near-gale force winds cover the Lee of Cuba, including the Cayman Islands, with seas as high as 14 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the south- central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Fresh winds are occurring elsewhere W of the front, and over the Lesser Antilles. The entire stationary front will gradually weaken and transition to a frontal trough through today, as the high pressure north of the area slides eastward and begins to weaken. This shift will allow for winds and seas to improve later today across the north central and NW Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... A stationary front passes through the Windward Passage. A surface trough is along 72W/73W from 14N to 19N, moving through Haiti at this time. The moisture from these two features will support rainshowers and thunderstorms across the island through at least tonight. High pressure to the north will support 20 to 30 kt NE winds in the northern coastal areas of Haiti through the rest of this morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front from 32N50W to 29N54W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from 29N54W to the Windward Passage. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 240 nm to the east and southeast of the line that passes through 32N62W to 24N70W, to Haiti. It is possible that some rainshowers may be in the easternmost parts of the Dominican Republic. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure currently over the mid Atlantic shore of the United States and the stationary front supports near gale to gale-force winds over an area south of 24N and west of the front to about 75W. Broad high pressure of 1028 mb centered near 30N36W dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic discussion waters. Fresh trade winds can be found south of 24N W of 25W to 60W, as well as fresh northerly winds N of the Cabo Verde Islands, supporting seas of 8 to 13 ft. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ mt