000 AXNT20 KNHC 080520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1220 AM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... Strong high pressure of 1037 mb over the mid U.S. Atlantic coast continues to support near gale to gale-force northeast winds south of 24N and west of a stationary front to 75W that currently extends from 26N60W to 20N73W. The gale includes the Windward Passage. Seas of 10-15 ft are expected within the area of gale- force winds. Fresh to strong NE winds are also affecting the remainder of the waters between the Bahamas and Cuba, the Straits of Florida, and W Atlantic waters S of 28N and W of the front, with seas up to 11 ft outside the Bahamas. Winds will drop just below gale force within the next couple of hours. Conditions across the entire region will continue to improve through Mon night as the high shifts east and weakens and the front dissipates. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The aforementioned high pressure is also currently bringing gale-force winds over the Windward Passage and approaches to the passage north of 18N and E of 76W. Seas are likely peaking around 10-13 ft under these winds. Winds will drop just below gale force over the next couple of hours, and will continue to improve through Mon night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean from the Africa coast near 10N15W and continues to 04N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N20W to the equator near 34W to the South America Coast near 01S45W. Isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the basin anchored by a strong high pressure of 1037 mb located near 36N77W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure to the north and lower pressures over the Caribbean and Mexico support fresh to strong easterly winds over the Straits of Florida and eastern two-thirds of the Gulf basin. Mainly moderate to fresh east to southeast winds prevail elsewhere. Expect for the next cold front to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts later today with an accompanying low pressure area emerging over the north central Gulf tonight. Fresh northerly winds and building seas of 5-6 ft are expected west of the low and cold front. The front, low, and associated winds will weaken on Tuesday. A stronger cold front will cross the western Gulf on Thursday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends across the Windward Passage near 20N73W to 18N80W and is beginning to transition to a frontal trough to 10N81W. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm of the front. Observations continue to indicate near gale to gale- force winds across the Windward Passage and approaches. Please see the special features section for more details. Strong to near- gale force winds cover the Lee of Cuba, including the Cayman Islands, with seas as high as 14 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the south- central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Fresh winds are occurring elsewhere W of the front, and over the Lesser Antilles. The entire stationary front will gradually weaken and transition to a frontal trough through today, as the high pressure north of the area slides eastward and begins to weaken. This shift will allow for winds and seas to improve later today across the north central and NW Caribbean. ...HISPANIOLA... A stationary front is through the Windward Passage while a surface trough is crossing the island. The moisture from these two features will support showers and thunderstorms over the island through at least tonight. High pressure to the north will support 20 to 30 kt NE winds over the northern coast of Haiti through this morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N53W and extends to 26N60W, where it transitions to a stationary front to the Windward Passage near 20N73W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 500 nm west of the cold front, and within 360 nm W of the stationary front. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure currently over the mid Atlantic shore of the United States and the stationary front supports near gale to gale-force winds over an area south of 24N and west of the front to about 75W. Please see the special features section for more details. An upper low centered over the tropical central Atlantic is supporting scattered thunderstorms from 11N to 18N between 43W and 50W. Broad high pressure of 1028 mb centered near 30N36W dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic discussion waters. Fresh trade winds can be found south of 24N W of 25W to 60W, as well as fresh northerly winds N of the Cabo Verde Islands, supporting seas of 8 to 13 ft. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto