000 AXNT20 KNHC 061719 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1219 PM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A frontal boundary will stall across the southwest Atlantic including the approach to the Windward Passage within the next 30-36 hours. The pressure gradient in the vicinity of this feature will induce gale-force winds south of 22N and west of front to 74W. Seas will be 8-12 ft in this area. These conditions will diminish by early Monday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The same frontal boundary inducing the gale-force winds over the southwest Atlantic is also enhancing winds over the Caribbean mainly north of 18N between 77W-82W starting on Sunday 07/1800 UTC. Seas will be 8-13 ft in this area. These conditions will diminish by Monday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 02N25W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 02N25W to to the South American coast near 00N49W. Scattered showers are noted from 00N-12N between 28W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the entire basin anchored by a 1039 mb high pressure located over southern Wisconsin near 43N91W. The only feature present in the basin is a surface trough that extends from 25N90W to 22N90W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail across the whole area. Little change is expected through the next 24-48 hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the Windward Passage near 20N73W to 16N78W to the southwest Caribbean near 10N80W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted west of the front, while fresh easterly winds prevail east of the front. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the front. Expect for the stationary front to linger through Sunday, then dissipate on Monday. A Gale Warning has been issued for the northwest Caribbean. Please refer to the section above for details. ...HISPANIOLA... Cloudiness with embedded showers will persist across the island today due to the frontal boundary currently extending across the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds are expected through the area and northern coast exposures through Sunday. These winds will reach gale-force on Sunday evening. See the section above for more details. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail end of a stationary front is over the west Atlantic along 30N between 70W-73W. To the east, another stationary front extends from 31N57W to 20N72W. Scattered showers are noted along and west of this front between 60W-75W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a pair of 1032 highs centered near 32N37W and 36N30W. Expect during the next 30-36 hours for the pressure gradient to tighten near the easternmost front inducing gale-force winds south of 22N and west of the front to 74W. Please refer to the section above for details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA