000 AXNT20 KNHC 061116 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 616 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An Atlantic Gale Warning has been issued for an area N of Hispaniola starting Sun 07/1800 UTC lasting 12 hours. A cold front will extend from 31N54W TO 26N60W then continue as stationary to 20N71W. Gale force winds will be S of 22N W of front to 74W, including the approach to the Windward Passage. Seas will be 8-12 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. A Caribbean Gale Warning has been issued for the NW Caribbean from N of 18N between 77W-82W starting Sun 07/1200 UTC lasting 18 hours. Seas will be 8-13 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 03N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N22W to 01N40W to the South American coast near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is N of the ITCZ from 04N-09N between 32W-38W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 120 nm of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the entire Gulf of Mexico anchored by a 1040 mb high pressure located over Wisconsin near 48N94W. Broken multi-layered clouds are over the central Gulf. Overcast low clouds are banked up along the E slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains, and are over the far W Gulf W of 95W. 5-10 kt N surface winds are over Florida. 10-15 kt E winds are over the Gulf. 5-10 kt S winds are over Texas. In the upper levels, a very large trough is over the Gulf with axis from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Expect the slight cold air advection to persist over Florida today. CARIBBEAN SEA... A quasi-stationary front extends from the Windward Passage near 20N73W to 16N78W to the SW Caribbean near 09N79W. 15-25 kt northerly winds are presently W of the front. Scattered moderate to convection is within 90 nm of the front. In the upper levels, the base of a large trough is over the far NW Caribbean. An upper level high centered over the Windward Islands near 12N66W is producing ridging over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Expect the stationary front to linger through Sunday, and dissipate Monday. A gale warning has been issued for the NW Caribbean. See above. ...HISPANIOLA... Cloudiness with embedded showers and isolated tstms will persist across the island today due to the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected through the Windward Passage and northern coast exposures through Sunday. These winds will reach gale force on Sunday evening. See Above. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail end of a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to 27N72W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N56W to the Windward Passage near 20N73W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of this front. The central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high centered S of the Azores near 34N33W. The tail end of a cold front is over the E Atlantic from 31N10W to the Canary Islands near 27N17W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa