000 AXNT20 KNHC 051611 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1111 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 04N08W to 03N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N17W to 02N33W to the Equator near 41W. Scattered moderate convection is from the Equator to 04N between 07W-14W...and from 04N-08N between 26W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf this afternoon anchored by a 1032 mb high centered across Mississippi near 33N91W. Gentle to moderate E-NE winds prevail this afternoon and are expected to continue through early Saturday morning. Thereafter...the ridging will weaken slightly while sliding eastward across the SE CONUS as global models suggest weak troughing to develop within easterly winds across the central Gulf along 90W Saturday afternoon and evening. Troughing that does develop will initiate moderate to fresh E-SE winds across the eastern Gulf ahead of the next area of low pressure to develop across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles on Sunday. The associated cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts on Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Southwesterly flow aloft is occurring over the western and central Caribbean between broad middle to upper level troughing noted on water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level anticyclone centered over the eastern Caribbean near 14N62W. The troughing supports a stationary front extending from across Hispaniola to 15N78W to 10N80W. Low-level moisture convergence is maximized in the vicinity of the front with scattered showers and tstms occurring within 150 nm either side of the boundary. To the NW of the front...fresh to strong N-NE winds prevail and generally E of the front moderate to fresh trades persist under mostly fair skies. The stationary front is expected to remain in place through the weekend and begin to weaken and become diffuse Sunday night into Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected to continue through the weekend as a stationary front is analyzed across the island and regional coastal waters. Most active convection is noted within 150 nm either side of the front S of 18N...however upper level southwesterly winds will remain favorable for convective development across interior portions of the island this afternoon and evening. Fresh to strong NE winds will persist through the Windward Passage and northern coast exposures through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the eastern CONUS supporting a cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N58W SW to 21N69W then becomes stationary to across western Hispaniola and into the SW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 25N within 150 nm E of the front...with scattered showers and isolated tstms occurring elsewhere within 150 nm either side of the front. A secondary cold front extends from 32N66W to 29N75W and remains embedded within fresh to strong W-NW winds. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge axis extending from across the Florida panhandle SE to across the Bahamas. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high centered W of the Azores near 39N35W. Within the eastern periphery of the ridging...a cold front is pushing southward across the Madeira Islands from 33N17W to 32N30W. This colder airmass is ushering in another round of fresh to strong N-NW winds across the far northeastern discussion waters this afternoon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN