000 AXNT20 KNHC 051034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 534 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends into the discussion area from the hurricane- force 950 mb low centered over Canada near 45N66W. The cold front reaches from 32N60W SW to 22N70W to Haiti near 20N72W. Gale force winds N of 30N between 71W-77W, diminished to below gale force on 05/0900 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N09W to 05N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N15W to 04N27W to the coast of South America near 03S42W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 07W-14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 mb high is centered over E Texas near 32N94W. A ridge axis extends SW from the high to NE Mexico near 25N99W producing 10-20 kt northerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds covers the Gulf S of 28N. Radar imagery shows isolated moderate convection over the NW Gulf and Louisiana. In the upper levels, a very large trough is over the Gulf with axis from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Upper level moisture and scattered high clouds are over the N Gulf N of 25N. Strong subsidence is S of 25N. Expect cold air advection to persist through this evening, then switch to easterly surface flow and warming thereafter. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from Haiti near 20N72W to 14N78W to a 1010 mb low over the the SW Caribbean near 10N81W. 15-25 kt northerly winds are N of the front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the low. Isolated moderate convection is over the central Caribbean from 14N-17N between 74W- 79W. In the upper levels, the base of a large trough is over the far NW Caribbean. An upper level high centered over the Leeward Islands is producing ridging over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Expect the stationary front to linger today, gradually dissipating Saturday into Sunday. Fresh to strong winds are expected W of the boundary through the upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected today across Hispaniola due to a stationary front analyzed over Haiti. Expect NE winds to increase over the Windward Passage and northern coastal exposures, persisting through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Beside of the Special Features cold front across the SW North Atlantic, a reinforcing cold front is off the Florida coast from 31N70W to the N Bahamas near 27N78W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high centered W of the Azores near 39N36W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa