000 AXNT20 KNHC 050536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1236 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends into the discussion area from the hurricane- force 952 mb low centered off the mid-Atlc coast near 43N67W. The cold front reaches from 32N61W S-SW to 22N70W through the Windward Passage. Near gale to gale force W-NW winds are occurring generally N of 30N between 71W-77W, diminishing below gale force by Friday as the low pressure area moves further northeastward. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 04N08W to 05N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N15W to 06N20W to the Equator near 39W to the coast of South America near 03S41W. Only isolated convection is occurring, mainly N of the axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails from central Arkansas to S Texas producing 10-20 kt northerly flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast cold air stratocumulus clouds covers the Gulf S of 28N. Radar imagery shows isolated moderate convection over the far NW Gulf and S Texas. In the upper levels, a very large trough is over the Gulf with axis from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Upper level moisture and scattered high clouds are over the N Gulf N of 25N. Strong subsidence is S of 25N. Expect cold air advection to persist through Friday evening, then switch to easterly surface flow and warming thereafter. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the Windward Passage near 20N74W to 16N78W to a 1010 mb low over the the SW Caribbean near 10N81W. 15-25 kt northerly winds are N of the front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the low. Isolated moderate convection is over the central Caribbean from 14N-17N between 74W-79W. In the upper levels, the base of a large trough is over the far NW Caribbean. An upper level high centered over the Leeward Islands is producing ridging over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Expect the stationary front to linger through Friday, gradually dissipating Saturday into Sunday. Fresh to strong winds are expected W of the boundary through the upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected through Friday across Hispaniola as a stationary front is analyzed just to the NW of northern Haiti. Expect NE winds to increase over the Windward Passage and northern coastal exposures, persisting through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Beside of the Special Features cold front across the SW North Atlantic, a reinforcing cold front is off the Florida coast from 31N75W to 29N80W. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high centered W of the Azores near 40N39W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa