000 AXNT20 KNHC 041626 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1126 AM EST Thu Jan 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends into the discussion area from the hurricane- force 957 mb low centered off the mid-Atlc coast near 37N72W. The cold front reaches from 32N66W S-SW to 22N72W through the Windward Passage and into the western Caribbean Sea. Near gale to gale force W-NW winds are occurring generally N of 29N between 65W-77W. As the low pressure area moves northward through tonight towards the eastern tip of Maine and western Nova Scotia...strong to near gale force winds will continue across the discussion area waters through early Friday morning. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. A strengthened pressure gradient and reinforcing cold air filtering in across the SW Caribbean Sea continues to support near gale to gale force N-NW winds generally S of 13N W of 81W. The wind field is forecast diminish below gale force by Thursday evening. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the Prime Meridian near 03N to 03N07W to 05N12W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N11W to 07N20W to the Equator near 38W. Isolated moderate convection is from the Equator to 04N between 02W-09W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 15W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf this afternoon anchored by a 1031 mb high centered across eastern Texas near 31N97W and a 1030 mb high centered across NE Mexico near 25N99W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected to persist through Friday night. Thereafter...the ridging will weaken slightly and slide eastward across the SE CONUS shifting winds E-NE Saturday and E-SE on Sunday as the next area of low pressure develops across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. The associated cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts late Sunday night into Monday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the western North Atlc and NW Caribbean with axis extending from 32N77W to a base over the Gulf of Honduras near 16N86W. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed from the Windward Passage SW across eastern Jamaica to the coast of central Panama near 10N80W. A 1009 mb low is centered at the southern extent of the front with a pre-frontal trough extending NE from the low to 16N75W. The front along with the low and troughing are providing focus for scattered showers and tstms occurring generally within 72W-83W in the vicinity of surface trough axis and low. An earlier ASCAT pass indicated the Special Features near gale to gale force N-NW winds S of 15N W of the cold front. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail W of the front elsewhere with moderate to fresh trades noted across the remainder of the basin E of the surface trough. The cold front will become stationary by Thursday night into Friday across the Windward Passage region and Hispaniola with fresh to strong winds expected W of the boundary through the upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers and isolated tstms are expected through Friday across Hispaniola as a cold front is analyzed to the west across the Windward Passage and eastern Jamaica. The front is expected to stall across the island Friday with NE increasing through the Windward Passage and northern coast exposures...persisting through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Outside of the Special Features cold front across the SW North Atlc...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high centered S-SW of the Azores near 33N34W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN