000 AXNT20 KNHC 030002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 702 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from 31N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 24.5N80W in the Straits of Florida, across NW Cuba, to the east-central coastal sections of Honduras, and into southern Guatemala. The 12-HOUR forecast consists of NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 13 feet, to the S of 24N and to the W of 96W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 24.5N80W in the Straits of Florida, beyond NW Cuba, to Honduras. Expect N-to-NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 17 feet, N OF the FRONT TO 30N AND W OF 78W. Storm-force winds are forecast in 27 hours. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone and Liberia to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 02N30W, crossing the Equator along 38W, into NE Brazil near 04S46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 07N southward from 50W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the cold front and the gale-force winds. The cold front from yesterday has passed through the Gulf of Mexico entirely. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds cover the entire area. Broken to overcast low level clouds are being observed at the oil platform sites. A few observations also consist of reports of haze and mist, and visibilities in the 2 mile to 3 mile range. Surface high pressure has moved into the Gulf of Mexico behind the cold front. A ridge passes through the Lower Valley of Texas, into the eastern coastal plains of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough is in the western Gulf of Mexico, in the coastal waters of Mexico from 20N northward, to the Texas Gulf coast along 27N/28N. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 24.5N80W in the Straits of Florida, across NW Cuba, to the east-central coastal sections of Honduras, and into southern Guatemala. Broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds cover the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level ridge extends from the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, to eastern Honduras/NE Nicaragua. One 700 mb inverted trough spans the eastern Caribbean Sea islands, from north to south. A second 700 mb inverted trough is along 77W/78W, from 16N southward. A surface trough extends from 17N73W to 14N76W, to a 1009 mb low pressure center that is near 11N77W in the SW part of the Caribbean Sea. The trough continues beyond eastern Panama, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers within 120 nm on either side of the line from 18N73W to 13N78W to the coast of Panama near 09N82W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in areas of scattered-to- broken low level clouds, that are spread across the entire area. 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 02/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.64 in Bermuda, 0.35 in Curacao, 0.24 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.07 in Trinidad, and 0.04 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...Scattered to broken low level clouds and are being observed. Few cumulonimbus clouds are being reported in Barahona in the Dominican Republic. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow during day one, eventually becomes S-to-SW wind flow during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows SW wind flow will move across the island during the next 48 hours. Hispaniola will be on the W side of a Caribbean Sea ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the beginning of day one. This situation will transition into S-to-SW wind flow across Hispaniola during the rest of the 48 hours. Hispaniola will be at the western edge of a ridge. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the cold front and the gale-force winds. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 23N to 25N between 68W and 72W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward from 40W westward. An upper level trough extends from a cyclonic circulation center that is near the Western Sahara, to 20N23W, to a second cyclonic circulation center that is near 18N36W, to 14N56W. Rainshowers are possible in areas of broken low level clouds, from 12N to 20N between 40W and 61W. A surface trough is along 19N60W 14N58W. A surface ridge passes through 32N33W, to 29N45W, 27N54W, and 25N62W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT