000 AXNT20 KNHC 021739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1239 PM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... An middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the eastern Gulf of Mexico supporting a cold front extending from 32N61W SW to the NW Bahamas near 26N78W to western Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula near 20N89W. While fresh to strong northerly winds are occurring across much of the Gulf basin this afternoon...near gale to gale force N-NW winds are expected S of 21N W of 95W through early Tuesday evening across the southwestern waters. In addition...the cold front and associated strong pressure gradient across the SW North Atlc waters offshore of the SE CONUS and northern Florida coasts are generating near gale to gale force N-NE winds. The gradient is expected to relax overnight into Wednesday morning with winds diminishing accordingly. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/ WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 06N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N20W to 02N30W to the Equator near 38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between 17W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... In wake of the cold front analyzed across the SW North Atlc and Yucatan Channel region in the NW Caribbean Sea waters...the Gulf is under the influence of overall surface ridging anchored by a 1044 mb high centered across the mid-Mississippi River valley in the vicinity of Saint Louis Missouri this afternoon. Fresh to strong N-NE winds prevail basin-wide with the Special Features near gale to gale force winds continuing off the coast of Mexico in the SW Gulf through this evening. Otherwise...by late Tuesday night into Wednesday...reinforcing cold air is expected to impact the western Gulf waters once again increasing northerly winds into strong to near gale force levels near Tampico and Veracruz. Thereafter...the wind field will gradually diminish Wednesday night into Thursday as the southern extent of a ridge anchored across Iowa provides gentle to moderate northerly winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the Caribbean basin this afternoon between an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Yucatan peninsula and an upper level anticyclone anchored over the SE Caribbean near 14N62W. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed across the SW North Atlc...across western Cuba from 23N81W to the NE portion of the Yucatan peninsula near 20N89W. Isolated showers are possible across the NW Caribbean waters in the vicinity of the front as the cooler and drier airmass NW of the front filters in across the western Caribbean through tonight. Farther SE...broad surface troughing and a weak 1009 mb low centered offshore of eastern Panama near 10N77W continues to provide focus for scattered showers and widely scattered tstms S of 18N between 72W-82W. The low is expected to drift westward through Wednesday. Otherwise...the eastern Caribbean remains under fair skies within moderate to occasional fresh trades. The front is expected to gradually weaken through Wednesday and reinforcing cold air will increase northerly winds again Wednesday night into Thursday generally W of 75W. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly dry and stable conditions aloft are noted on water vapor imagery...with patches of shallow moisture and possible isolated showers embedded within moderate trade wind flow. A cold front currently across western Cuba and the NW Caribbean Sea will begin to approach from the west on Thursday ushering in an increase in cloudiness and possibility of precipitation. NE winds will increase through the Windward Passage region and persist through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the eastern CONUS and northwestern North Atlc supporting a cold front entering into the SW North Atlc discussion area this afternoon. The cold front extends from a 1007 mb low centered SE of Nova Scotia near 41N49W SW to 32N62W to the NW Bahamas then across western Cuba. Widely scattered showers are possible within 150 nm either side of the cold front W of 58W. To the S of the front across the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...a surface trough extends from the Windward Passage region near 20N74W to 25N69W providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms S from 20N-26N between 66W-74W. The cold front is expected to continue sliding eastward through Thursday with strong to near gale force NE winds following in wake of the front. A middle to upper level trough...currently diving out of the central Rocky Mountains...will aid in cyclogenesis across the SW North Atlc waters Wednesday on the western extent of the front. The low is forecast to strengthen...and quickly move N of the discussion area Wednesday night into Thursday. The remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high centered W-SW of the Iberian peninsula near 37N13W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN