000 AXNT20 KNHC 021121 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 621 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front has exited the SE Gulf of Mexico, but high pressure ridging southward along the Sierra Madre oriental of eastern Mexico is generating gales along the coast of Mexico. Satellite-derived wind data from around 03Z indicated 30 to 35 kt winds near Tampico and stronger winds of 30 to 40 kt near Veracruz. Expect NW-to-N gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 18 feet to persist to the S of 24.5N within 75 nm of the coast of Mexico W of 94W until late tonight, when the high pressure ridge weakens enough to allow the gales to subside. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends SW from 32N63W to the northern tip of Andros Island in the Bahamas, then to the coast of Central Cuba near 23N80W. Expect N-to-NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 15 feet, N of 28N and the front and W of 74W today. These conditions will sink slowly S through tonight in tandem with the front and reach as far S as 25N by Wed morning. The front is expected to stall in response to the approach of a vigorous mid- level trough from the NW, allowing low pressure to form over the northern Bahamas by Wed evening. The low is expected to rapidly deepen and maintain gales N of 26N and W of the low and front to 80W and in the E semicircle of the low within 300 NM. Seas in these areas are forecasted in the 8 to 14 ft range. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends W from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00N40W. Isolated moderate convection is present from 01N to 03N between 13W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details concerning gale-force winds along the coast of Mexico near Tampico and Veracruz. Otherwise, strong high pressure ridging southward over the Gulf from the United States mainland is maintaining dry conditions and fresh to strong winds over the basin. Winds will subside today and tonight as the high shifts E across the United States mainland, then a reinforcing surge of cold air will reintroduce gales to the coast of Mexico near Tampico on Wed and near Veracruz Wed night. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level ridge extending N from South America over the eastern Caribbean is maintaining relatively dry conditions there. An upper-level trough moving E from the Gulf of Mexico is interacting with convergent low-level flow in the vicinity of surface low pres near the N coast of Colombia to produce isolated thunderstorms over the SW Caribbean between 09N and 12N from 72W to 82W. Moderate trades are expected over the basin until Thu morning, when a cold front introduces fresh to strong N winds over the Caribbean W of 80W. These winds will persist through Sat as the cold air is reinforced by deepening low pres moving NE from the Bahamas. ...HISPANIOLA... Mainly dry and stable conditions will remain in place during the next couple of days as mid to upper-level ridging remains in place overhead. Isolated trade-wind showers and partly cloudy skies can be expected. Strong NE winds could develop over the Windward Passage Thu night and Fri as a frontal boundary stalls over the island. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details concerning the gale force winds E of Florida and N of the Bahamas. Otherwise, the remainder of the basin is dominated a large 1036 mb high centered SW of Portugal near 36N14W. A very long ridge extends WSW from the high to NE of Hispaniola near 25N68W. The high will be generating fresh to strong trades over the waters E of 50W during the next several days. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy