000 AXNT20 KNHC 010534 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1234 AM EST Mon Jan 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from NE Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of NE Mexico. Behind the front, frequent gusts to gale force are within 60 nm of the coast between Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida and Brownsville Texas. By Monday evening, gale force winds will cover the Bay of Campeche S of 24N and W of 96W. Seas will be 8-11 ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 04N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N17W to 02N40W to the South American coast near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 14W-22W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 22W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 01/0300 UTC, a strong cold front extends from NE Florida near Daytona Beach at 29N81W to the NE Gulf of Mexico at 29N84W to the NE Mexico coast near 25N98W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over the N Gulf N of 24N. A 1019 mb low is embedded on the front at 25N98W. A surface trough extends S from the low to 24N95W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with upper level moisture over most of the Gulf, N of 23N. Expect the front to push S to the Bay of Campeche and produce gale force winds behind the front. See above. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are over Costa Rica, Panama, and N Colombia. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Leeward and Windward Islands. Moderate trades are over the N Caribbean N of 15N, while moderate to fresh trades are over the S Caribbean. Broad ridging aloft covers the entire basin with the strongest flow over the NW part. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean on Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Patches of shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow continue to support scattered showers over the island. Similar weather is forecast to persist through Tuesday as low level moisture continue to advect from the east. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N76W to NE Florida near 29N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1013 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 32N68W. A cold front extends S from this low to the central Bahamas near 23N75W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this front. Further E, a dissipating stationary front extends from 31N54W to 27N65W. Scattered showers are within 240 nm E of this front. A 1038 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 37N16W. Expect the two cold fronts to continue to move E with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa