000 AXNT20 KNHC 311047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 547 AM EST Sun Dec 31 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... As of 31/0900 UTC, a strong cold front is over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from Tampa Bay Florida to Tampico, Mexico on Sunday night. Behind the front, frequent gusts to gale force are expected within 60 nm of the coast between Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida and High Island Texas beginning at 0600 UTC Monday. By Monday night, gale force winds will cover the Bay of Campeche S of 21N and W of 95W. Seas will be 12-14 ft. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N10W to 05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N16W to 04N40W to the South American coast near 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 36W-51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N-13N between 54W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 31/0900 UTC, a strong cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near Tallahassee at 31N84W to the Texas coast near Corpus Christi at 28N97W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers between the Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana. A 1017 mb low is embedded on the front at 29N92W. A surface trough extends S from the low to 24N95W. Scattered showers are within 15 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with upper level moisture over the central Gulf. Expect the front to push S to the Bay of Campeche and produce gale force winds behind the front. See above. The surface low in 24 hours will move E to the NE Gulf near 28N85W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough over Panama and Costa Rica supports scattered moderate convection S of 12N. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the Leeward and Windward Islands. Moderate trades are over the N Caribbean N of 15N, while moderate to fresh trades are over the S Caribbean. Broad ridging aloft covers the entire basin with the strongest flow over the NW part. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean on Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly dry and stable conditions are aloft, however, patches of shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow continue to support scattered showers over the island. Similar weather is forecast to persist through Monday as low level moisture continue to advect from the east. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N75W to the N Bahamas near 25N76W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A cold front extends over the W Atlantic from 31N59W to 26N71W. Scattered moderate convection is E of the front from 29N- 32N between 50W-57W. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 32N23W. Expect a new cold front to enter the W Atlantic off the coast of Florida Sunday afternoon with showers. Expect the other cold front to continue to move E with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa