000 AXNT20 KNHC 310537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1237 AM EST Sun Dec 31 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... As of 31/0300 UTC, a strong cold front has just entered the northern Gulf of Mexico. The front will extend from the Tampa Bay area of Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Sunday night. Behind the front, frequent gusts to gale force are expected within 60 nm of the coast between Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida and High Island Texas beginning at 0000 UTC Monday. By Monday afternoon, gale force winds will cover the area from 21N to 24N west of 96W with N to NE winds 20 to 30 knots elsewhere north of the front. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 06N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N17W to 04N40W to the South American coast near 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 33W-38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-12N between 54W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... As of 31/0300 UTC, a strong cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N85W to the Texas coast near 29N96W. Radar imagery shows scattered showers inland over Louisiana. A surface trough is located over the W Gulf of Mexico from 29N92W to 23N94W. Scattered showers are within 15 nm of the trough. In the upper levels, zonal flow is noted with upper level moisture over the central Gulf. Expect the front to push S over the Gulf and produce gale force winds N of front. See above. Seas of 8 to 13 ft will build across the central and western Gulf associated with the strong winds. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 mb low centered over central Panama near 09N80W supports scattered moderate convection S of 13N and W of 80W. Scattered showers are over the Leeward and Windward Islands. Mainly moderate trades cover the Caribbean N of 15N with moderate to fresh trades over the area S of 15N. Broad ridging aloft covers the entire basin with the strongest flow over the NW part. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean on Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly dry and stable conditions are aloft, however, patches of shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow continue to support scattered showers over the island. Similar weather is forecast to persist through Monday as low level moisture continue to advect from the east. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N76W to the N Bahamas near 26N76W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A 1013 mb low is over the W Atlantic near 32N60W. A cold front extends SW from the low to 27N68W. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-32N between 53W-59W. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 32N24W. Expect a strong cold front to enter the Atlantic off the coast of Florida Sunday evening with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa