000
AXNT20 KNHC 302356
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A strong cold front will enter the northern Gulf of Mexico on 
Sunday night and will reach from the Tampa Bay area of Florida 
to Tampico, Mexico by Monday morning.  Behind the front, 
frequent gusts to gale force are expected within 60 nm of the 
coast between Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida and High Island Texas 
beginning at 0000 UTC Monday.  By Monday afternoon, gale force 
winds will cover the area from 21N to 24N west of 96W with N to 
NE winds 20 to 30 knots elsewhere north of the front.  Please 
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 
04N14W.  The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
04N14W to 03N30W to the South American coast near 08N59W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is located from 06N to 
13N between 56W and 63W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is located from 29N85W to 26N85W and continues 
as a stationary front to a 1019 mb low pressure center off the 
upper Texas coast near 29N95W.  A surface trough extends from 
the low southward to near 22N95W.  Scattered showers are located 
within 90 nm of the front and low center.  The low will move 
inland later tonight as the stationary front weakens. Refer to 
the special feature section for more details.  Seas of 8 to 13 
ft will build across the central and western Gulf associated 
with the strong winds.  Moderate to strong westerly winds aloft 
cover the entire gulf.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1010 mb low centered over central Panama near 09N80W supports 
scattered moderate convection S of 13N and W of 80W.  Mainly 
moderate trades cover the Caribbean N of 15N with moderate to 
fresh trades over the area S of 15N.  A cold front will reach 
the NW Caribbean on Tuesday.  Broad ridging aloft covers the 
entire basin with the strongest flow over the NW part.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly dry conditions cover Hispaniola early this evening. 
Broken to overcast clouds are over the interior sections of 
Haiti with scattered showers. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A jetstream has its axis extending from the Florida Straits to 
27N70W to beyond 32N55W.  Water vapor imagery shows strong 
subsidence from 15N to 25N between 30W and 60W.  Another 
jetstream is located from 18N60W to 14N40W to beyond 17N20W.  A 
1013 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N63W.  A cold 
front extends SW from the low to 27N70W.  A stationary front is 
over the central Atlantic from 31N40W to 30N46W, where it 
transitions to a warm front to beyond 32N55W to the 1013 mb low 
mentioned above. Scattered moderate convection is located N of 
27N between 55W and 63W.

$$
CAB