000 AXNT20 KNHC 301748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1248 PM EST Sat Dec 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A strong cold front will enter the northern Gulf of Mexico early on Sunday night and will reach from the Tampa Bay area of Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Monday morning. Behind the front, frequent gusts to gale force are expected within 60 nm of the coast between Choctawhatchee Bay, Florida and High Island Texas beginning at 0000 UTC Monday, and persisting into Monday afternoon. Please refer to the latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 05N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N14W to 03N30W to the South American coast near 02N51W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Venice, Florida near 27N82W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W to a 1019 mb low pressure center near 28N96W. A surface trough extends from the low southward to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front, low, and trough. Another batch of showers and isolated thunderstorms extends S of the stationary front to 22N between 85W and 90W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are N of the stationary front. Gentle to moderate winds are W of the trough and S of the stationary front. The low will move inland tonight as the stationary front weakens. A strong cold front will enter the northern Gulf Sunday evening and support frequent northerly wind gusts to gale force within 60 nm of the coast Sunday night through at least early Monday afternoon. Please refer to the special features section for more details. Strong to near gale force winds will spread south behind the front Monday, with sustained gale force winds possible over a portion of the southwest Gulf Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Seas of 8 to 13 ft will build across the central and western Gulf associated with the strong winds. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 mb low centered over Panama near 09N80W supports scattered moderate convection S of 13N and W of 79W. Scattered showers in the trade wind flow cover the SE Caribbean S of 13N and E of Aruba. Mainly moderate trades cover the Caribbean N of 15N. Moderate to fresh trades cover the Caribbean S of 15N. Over the next 24 hours winds will pulse to strong tonight near the Coast of NW Colombia. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean on Tuesday. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry conditions cover the Dominican Republic and northern Haiti, while scattered showers cover the southwest tip of Haiti. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1014 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N66W. A cold front extends SE from the low to 28N73W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N42W to 29N48W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 30N57W and then transitions to a warm front that extends to the 1014 mb low to the west. Scattered moderate convection is N of 27N between 54W and 66W. Fresh southerly winds are within 120 nm S of the warm front and stationary front. Fresh winds are N of the fronts between 57W and 70W. To the south, fresh to strong easterly trades S of 13N and W of 54W are helping to support scattered moderate and isolated strong convection over the area, including The Grenadines islands. A weak surface trough void of convection has an axis that extends from 21N50W to 13N51W. A 1026 mb high centered near 29N35W dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic discussion waters. Over the next 24 hours the low over the western Gulf will move north of the discussion waters. A strong cold front will reach the waters off north Florida on Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto