000
AXNT20 KNHC 301133
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
633 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 
04N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
04N13W to 04N40W to the South American coast near 04N51W. 
Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Venice Florida near 27N82W to the
central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W to a 1019 mb low pressure 
center near 27N96W, to the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. 10-15 kt 
surface winds are noted over the Gulf of Mexico. In the upper 
levels, zonal flow is noted with upper level moisture N of 23N 
and strong subsidence S of 23N. Expect the surface low to move to 
near Houston Texas, and convection to be over the central Gulf, 
in 24 hours.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Scattered 
moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S 0f 13N. Patches of 
scattered showers are over the Gulf of Honduras, most of Central 
America S of Belize, N Colombia, NE Venezuela, and the southern 
Windward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is over Trinidad
and Tobago. In the upper levels a large ridge is over the 
Caribbean with axis from Trinidad to Nicaragua. Expect additional 
showers and convection over the S Caribbean S of 14N over the next
48 hours. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly dry and stable conditions are aloft, however, patches of shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow continue to support
scattered showers over the island. Similar weather is forecast to
persist through Sunday as low level moisture continue to advect 
from the east.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N67W. A cold
front extends S from the low to the S Bahamas near 22N76W. A cold
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 28N50W. A
stationary front continues to 27N63W. A warm front continues to 
31N65W to the surface low. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic 
near 37N12W. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-33N between
60W-70W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the 
fronts. Expect the surface low to move NE over the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa