000
AXNT20 KNHC 300528
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1228 AM EST Sat Dec 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to 
04N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 
04N13W to 04N40W to the South American coast near 05N53W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 40W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from Venice Florida near 27N82W to the
central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W to a 1021 mb low pressure 
center near 26N97W, to the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. 10-15 kt
surface winds are noted over the Gulf of Mexico. In the upper
levels, zonal flow is noted with upper level moisture noted N of
23N and strong subsidence S of 23N. Expect the surface low to move
to near Houston Texas in 24 hours. 

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate
convection is over the SW Caribbean S 0f 13N. Patches of scattered
showers are over the Gulf of Honduras, most of Central America S
of Belize, N Colombia, NE Venezuela, Trinidad, and the southern
Windward Islands. In the upper levels a large ridge is over the
Caribbean with axis from Trinidad to Nicaragua. Expect additional
showers and convection over the S Caribbean S of 14N over the next
48 hours.  

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly dry and stable conditions are aloft, however, patches of shallow
moisture embedded in the trade wind flow continue to support
scattered showers over the island. Similar weather is forecast to
persist through Sunday as low level moisture continue to advect 
from the east.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N72W. A cold
front extends S from the low to the N Bahamas to W Cuba near
23N80W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N46W to
27N60W. A warm front continues to 31N70W to the surface low. A
1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 36N12W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the fronts. Expect the surface low to race NE
over the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa