000 AXNT20 KNHC 291108 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 608 AM EST Fri Dec 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 05N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N19W to 02N29W to 01N43W to the Equator near 46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 26W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Zonal westerly flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this morning while a stationary front extends from the NE Gulf near 28N84W to 25N90W into a 1022 mb low centered near 25N96W. The stationary front continues southward to 19N95W and inland across interior portions of east-central and NE Mexico. Low stratus and possible isolated showers are generally noted on satellite imagery north and west of the frontal boundary while isolated showers continue within 120 nm S of the front between 84W-93W. High pressure lies to the north across much of the SE CONUS and eastern Texas generating moderate to occasional fresh E-NE winds across much of the basin. The frontal troughing across the western Gulf waters is expected to remain in place through Saturday night while surface ridging influences the eastern Gulf and Florida peninsula through Sunday night. Thereafter...the next strong cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday late afternoon into the evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper level ridging persists over the Caribbean basin this morning with water vapor imagery indicating mostly dry and stable conditions aloft. Moderate to fresh trades prevail and are expected to persist through Tuesday. Low-level moisture convergence is maximized across the western waters generating isolated showers and tstms S of 16N W of 80W...and S of 20N W of 84W. This convection is expected to continue moving westward across interior portions of Central America. Otherwise...little change is expected during the next couple of days. ...HISPANIOLA... A few isolated showers are moving across the region this morning however mostly fair conditions are expected Friday for Hispaniola. Mostly dry and stable W-NW flow will persist on the eastern periphery of a upper level ridge anchored over the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N53W extending SW to 28N61W becoming stationary to 30N75W and into a 1020 mb low centered near 28N79W. A surface trough extends from 31N80W through the low center to 26N80W. Isolated showers are noted on satellite imagery along and N of the stationary front. Widely scattered showers and possible isolated tstms are occurring N of 29N within 90 nm either side of the cold front. To the south...a pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed from the central Bahamas near 24N75W to 28N60W and is providing focus for isolated showers within 75 nm either side of the boundary. Otherwise...the remainder of central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered SE of the Azores near 34N20W. One exception within the southwestern periphery of the surface ridge is a middle to upper level low noted on water vapor imagery near 24N36W generating scattered showers and possible isolated tstms from 19N-26N between 32W-37W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN