000 AXNT20 KNHC 261024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 524 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to 06N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N18W to 03N32W to 02N40W to the Equator near 47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-08N between 19W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad longwave troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the eastern CONUS and eastern Canada supporting a stationary front extending from across the NW Bahamas and Florida Straits to 24N85W becoming a dissipating stationary front into a 1019 mb low centered offshore of southern Texas near 27N97W. A surface trough extends south from the low center to near 21N96W. While no significant deep convection is noted with the front...broken to overcast stratus cloudiness and possible isolated showers are observed generally along and N of the front W of 85W this morning. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered across the Tennessee River valley. The ridging is providing gentle to moderate E-SE winds which are expected to persist through Tuesday afternoon. The area of weak low pressure across the western Gulf will drift E-NE and induce slightly stronger N-NE winds on Tuesday night into Wednesday across the NW Gulf eventually becoming more diffuse by Thursday as the frontal wave weakens across the north-central and NE Gulf waters. The next strong cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Rather tranquil skies prevail across the Caribbean basin this morning with the main focus being fresh to strong trades noted on recent scatterometer data between 70W-80W...strongest within 120 nm off the coast of Colombia. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. A few isolated showers are occurring S of 19N between 83W-88W...including the Gulf of Honduras and interior portions of Honduras and Guatemala. Little change is expected during the next couple of days. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated low-topped trade wind showers will continue to move across the island through the morning hours. Mostly dry and stable conditions are expected to persist during the next couple of days under the influence of a middle to upper level ridge and associated strong subsidence. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N67W extending SW to 29N72W then becomes stationary to the NW Bahamas across the Florida Keys and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Mainly low clouds with embedded isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front this morning. The cold front is expected to drift eastward through Wednesday...begin to stall and weaken on Thursday. The remainder of central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 37N33W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN