000 AXNT20 KNHC 260500 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1159 PM EST Mon Dec 25 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 07N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N20W to 05N30W to 05N40W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N between 20W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad longwave troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the eastern CONUS and eastern Canada supporting a cold front extending from across the NW Bahamas and Florida Straits to 24N86W becoming stationary into a 1018 mb low centered offshore of NE Mexico near 24N96W. A stationary front extends south from the low center to the southern Mexico coast near 18N95W. While no significant deep convection is noted with the front...broken to overcast stratus cloudiness is observed generally N of 24N W of 86W this evening. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a pair of 1034 mb highs centered across the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys. The ridging is providing gentle to moderate easterly winds which are expected to persist through Tuesday afternoon. The area of weak low pressure across the western Gulf will induce slightly stronger N-NE winds on Tuesday night into Wednesday across the NW Gulf eventually becoming more diffuse by Thursday as the frontal wave weakens across the north-central and NE Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... Rather tranquil skies prevail across the Caribbean basin this evening with the main focus being fresh to strong trades noted on recent scatterometer data between 72W-79W...strongest within 120 nm off the coast of Colombia. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. A few isolated showers are occurring S of 18N between 83W-87W...including interior portions of Honduras. Little change is expected during the next couple of days. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated low-topped trade wind showers will continue to move across the island through the overnight hours. Mostly dry and stable conditions are expected to persist during the next couple of days under the influence of a middle to upper level ridge and associated strong subsidence. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the discussion area near 32N68W extending SW to the NW Bahamas across the Florida Straits and into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Mainly low clouds with embedded isolated showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the front this evening. The front is expected to drift eastward through Wednesday begin to stall and weaken on Thursday. The remainder of central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered west of the Azores near 38N34W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN