000 AXNT20 KNHC 240553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1253 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico... Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. A cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico along 30N86W 22N95W 18.5N95W. Gale-force NW-to-N winds and sea heights to 8 feet are to the S of 20N W of the cold front. The gale-force wind conditions are forecast to be subsiding during the early morning hours of today. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N, to 02N11W and 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 04N25W 03N44W, to 03N51W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered strong from 05N to 06N between 23W and 25W, and from 05N to 06N between 33W and 35W. isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level SW wind flow and broken-to-overcast high level clouds cover the NW half of the Gulf of Mexico. Anticyclonic wind flow and comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery cover the SE half of the area. A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the area. Low clouds and possible rainshowers cover inland areas from Guatemala to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Rainshowers are possible also in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 20N southward. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale-force winds to the west of the cold front in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... MVFR at KVOA and KMIS, off the coast of SE Louisiana. VFR elsewhere. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: VFR. LOUISIANA: MVFR. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR/IFR. ALABAMA: MVFR/IFR/LIFR from Evergreen-to-Dothan southward. FLORIDA: IFR mostly, some MVFR and LIFR from Cross City westward. light rain in parts of the Panama City metropolitan area. light rain at the St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport. LIFR with fog in the NE part of the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. MVFR in Sarasota. LIFR with fog in Punta Gorda. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 70W eastward, with the 26N51W 17N60W 15N65W Atlantic Ocean-to- eastern Caribbean Sea trough, that has remained in the area during the last day or two. A second upper level trough extends from the Windward Passage to Honduras. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea from 12N to 16N between 80W and the coast of Central America. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in areas of broken low level clouds that are spread across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 24/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.12 in in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NE wind flow, and comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery, cover Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...HAITI, in Port-au-Prince: VFR. in the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1700 feet. VFR...elsewhere. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist of a trough in the eastern half of the island and a ridge in the western half of the island. The trough will shift to the northern half of the island, and a ridge will cover the southern half of the island. A ridge finally covers the entire island by the end of day one. Expect NW wind flow everywhere during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area during the next 2 days. An anticyclonic circulation center will be across Cuba. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that the first half of day one will consist of E-to-SE wind flow, and the second half of day one will consist of NE wind flow. Day two will consist of NE wind flow. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N43W to 26N51W to 17N60W and 15N65W. A surface trough is along 32N56W 28N55W 23N56W. A second surface trough is along 28N63W 25N66W 22N66W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N to 24N between 40W and 60W. rainshowers are possible from 22N to 30N between 60W and 80W. A surface ridge passes through Bermuda to 30N72W, across Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to 25N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward between Africa and 50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT