000 AXNT20 KNHC 220535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1235 AM EST Fri Dec 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 06N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N19W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 12W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Mid to upper-level ridging is noted on water vapor imagery over the entire basin along with deep layer dry air, which is supporting clear skies and fair weather. A 1020 mb surface high is centered over the northern Bahamas and extending across the basin. Light to gentle variable winds dominate the eastern half of the basin while moderate southeasterly winds prevail over the western half of the Gulf. The next cold front is forecast to come off the coast of Texas on Friday night and prevail through the weekend. Fresh to near gale-force northerly winds will follow the front starting on Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad mid to upper-level ridging prevails over the Caribbean basin with water vapor imagery indicating very dry and stable air aloft supporting fair weather at the surface. A surface ridge anchored across the northern Bahamas continues to support a tighter pressure gradient across the central Caribbean, resulting in fresh to strong trades in this area. Strong to near gale-force winds are expected along the coast of Colombia. Little change in the synoptic pattern is expected through early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Broad mid to upper-level ridging along with deep layer dry air continue to support fair weather conditions over the island. High pressure over the west Atlantic anchored by a 1020 mb high over the northern Bahamas supports pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Windward Passage through the weekend. While overall tranquil conditions are expected, isolated low-topped trade wind showers are possible during the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is N of the west Atlantic waters associated with a low pressure center along 63W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N63W to 27N76W. Another trough extends east of the first one from 31N53W to 26N60W. Scattered showers are noted between the troughs mainly north of 28N. The remainder west Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered across the northern Bahamas near 25N77W. To the east, a mid to upper-level low supports a surface trough that extends from 27N38W to 21N38W. Scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm on either side of the trough. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1042 mb high centered northwest of the Iberian peninsula near 43N17W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA