000 AXNT20 KNHC 140600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 05N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from 05N17W to 03N35W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 07N between 20W and 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging dominates the basin anchored by a pair of 1020 mb highs, one near 20N96W and the second near 25N83W. This surface pattern is supporting light to gentle variable winds. Deep layer dry air supports clear skies S of 25N. Looking ahead, another cold front is forecast to enter the northern Gulf Thu, then reach from the Florida Big Bend area in the NE Gulf to near Tampico Mexico by Fri afternoon, then stall from Tampa to the Bay of Campeche on Sat before lifting back to the W and NW through Sun. Gale force winds are possible along the coast of Mexico near Tampico Fri night and Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail of a weakening cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N78W to 20N85W with possible isolated showers within 60 nm either side of the boundary. Ahead of the front, the remnants of a former cold front are analyzed as a trough from the Windward Passage to eastern Jamaica to Panama adjacent waters near 10N79W. Isolated showers are within 240 nm west and 150 nm east of the trough axis, respectively. Isolated showers associated with the trough are in NW Hispaniola continuing through Thursday morning. Fair weather is elsewhere. In addition to showers, fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity of the surface trough as indicated by latest scatterometer data. Light to moderate trades are in the remainder central and eastern basin. Winds are forecast to increase to 20-25 kt over the south-central Caribbean on Thu night, with gale conditions possible Sat night and Sun night as high pressure builds N of area. ...HISPANIOLA... Cloudiness prevail over Hispaniola due to the proximity of a surface trough that currently crosses the Windward Passage towards Cuba. Isolated light showers are still possible tonight and early Thu. Then, moisture will diminish later on Thu as the trough continues to weaken and drift westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 30N62W and continues SW across the southern Bahamas into eastern Cuba. A surface trough is farther east and stretches from 30N57W to NE Dominican Republic adjacent waters near 20N68W. The cold front will continue to move SE while gradually dissipating on Thu. A ridge will then build along 25N in the wake of the cold front. Another cold front is forecast to move off the NE Florida coast early Fri, reach from Bermuda to South Florida Sat, then reach from 24N65W to eastern Cuba early Sun. The remainder of the Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of a 1035 mb high pressure located just south of the Azores. This high extends a ridge SW to near the NE Caribbean. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos