000 AXNT20 KNHC 121016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 516 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 07N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 07N16W to 02N40W to the Equator near 50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 10W-14W...and from 03N-06N between 38W-41W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N between 20W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the entire basin anchored by a 1027 mb high centered offshore of eastern Mexico near 23N97W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted across the basin this morning with slightly stronger moderate to fresh W-NW winds occurring N of 28N. The stronger winds are occurring in advance of a weak cold front analyzed across the lower Mississippi River valley and central Texas. The front is forecast to emerge off the SE CONUS coast later today introducing a brief period of fresh W-NW winds to the northern waters shifting eastward into the eastern waters Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The troughing will be quick to clear east of the basin by Wednesday with moderate northerly winds prevailing through Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary feature across the basin is the stationary front extending from the Windward Passage SW to the coast of western Panama near 10N81W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring generally S of 19N between 75W-83W. Much of this convection is supported aloft by a divergent upper level pattern on the western periphery of an upper level anticyclone anchored over northern Colombia near 08N75W. East of the anticyclonic circulation...dry NW flow prevails providing overall stability to the central and eastern Caribbean this evening. A few isolated showers are noted on satellite imagery E of 72W...but remain shallow and embedded within gentle to moderate trades. The front is forecast to remain stationary across the western Caribbean and gradually weaken through Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather conditions prevail across the island this morning while a stationary front remains analyzed across the Windward Passage region to the W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either side of the front which is expected to remain stationary and begin weakening through Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates broad middle to upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS and western North Atlc waters supporting a stationary front extending from 32N59W to the Turks and Caicos near 22N73W to the Windward Passage and into the SW Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored over the Gulf of Mexico and portions of eastern Mexico with axis extending E-NE across the Florida peninsula to a 1018 mb high centered near 31N70W. Farther east...water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level low centered near 25N50W. The associated surface trough extends from 15N58W to 23N53W with scattered showers and tstms occurring NE of the troughing from 15N-32N between 43W-50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN