000 AXNT20 KNHC 120520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1220 AM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 09N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N17W to 03N30W to 01N49W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 11W-15W...and from 05N-07N between 20W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the entire basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered offshore of southern Texas near 27N96W. Light to moderate anticyclonic winds are noted across the basin this evening with slightly stronger moderate to occasional fresh W winds expected to materialize N of 27N by morning. The stronger winds will be associated with a weak frontal trough emerging off the SE CONUS coast Tuesday introducing a brief period of fresh W-NW winds to the northern waters shifting eastward into the eastern waters Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The troughing will be quick to clear east of the basin by Wednesday with moderate northerly winds prevailing through Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary feature across the basin is the stationary front extending from the Windward Passage SW to Jamaica then S to the coast of western Panama near 09N81W. Widely scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring generally S of 19N between 75W- 83W. Much of this convection is supported aloft by a divergent upper level pattern on the western periphery of an upper level anticyclone anchored over northern Colombia near 08N75W. East of the anticyclonic circulation...dry NW flow prevails providing overall stability to the central and eastern Caribbean this evening. A few isolated showers are noted on satellite imagery E of 71W...but remain shallow and embedded within gentle to moderate trades. The front is forecast to remain stationary across the western Caribbean and gradually weaken through Thursday. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather conditions prevail across the island this evening while a stationary front remains analyzed across the Windward Passage region to the NW. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm either side of the front which is expected to remain stationary and begin weakening through Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates broad middle to upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS and western North Atlc waters supporting a stationary front extending from 32N59W to the Turks and Caicos near 22N72W to the Windward Passage and into the SW Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored over the Gulf of Mexico and portions of eastern Mexico. Farther east... water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level low centered near 25N51W. The associated surface trough extends from 14N57W to 29N54W with scattered showers and tstms occurring E of the troughing from 14N-30N between 41W-51W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN