000 AXNT20 KNHC 112353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 653 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A nearly stationary frontal boundary extends southwestward over the western Atlc from 32N61W across eastern Cuba, Jamaica, to end over the southwestern Caribbean Sea near 10N81W. A band of cloudiness and showers is found along and up to 180 n mi west of the front. The slow motion of the boundary is conducive to heavy rainfall accumulations. 2.32 inches of rainfall has been observed at Montego Bay, Jamaica during the 24 hours ending at 12 UTC this morning. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure ridging southward along the coast of Nicaragua remains strong enough to produce gale force winds to the west of the boundary over the Caribbean Sea. The ridge has begun to weaken and winds are expected to subside below gale force this evening. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. A strong cold front is pushing southward along the coast of Morocco. Meteo France has posted a gale warning for the Agadir and Tarfaya zones for N to NE winds increasing to gale force on Tuesday, especially in gusts. Winds are expected to remain near gale force over the Agadir, Tarfaya and Canarias forecast zones as well as the southeastern portion of the Madeira forecast zone until Wed, then subside by Wed evening. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the African coast near 08N13W to 07N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 07N16W to the coast of Brazil near 01S46W. Isolated moderate convection is present from 03N to 05N between 37W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fair weather conditions continue across the entire Gulf of Mexico due to a combination of strong surface high pressure centered over Mexico ridging eastward over the Gulf and deep layer ridging aloft. Surface winds are generally light to moderate over the northern half of the Gulf and moderate to fresh over the southern half. A weak cold front will introduce a reinforcing shot of cold air into the Gulf on Tue. The coldest air will affect the northeastern Gulf and bring a brief period of fresh to strong W to NW winds to the northeastern waters. High pressure will rebuild over the Gulf on Wed and Thu and maintain light to moderate winds over the basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main weather maker across the region is a nearly stationary front that crosses the basin from the eastern tip of Cuba to Jamaica to the coast of Panama near 10N81W. Please refer to the Special Features section regarding the gale force winds over the SW Caribbean. West of the front, northerly flow and scattered showers are occurring between the front and the coast of Nicaragua as well as the eastern third of Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds are continuing along the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, generally tranquil conditions exist to the east of the front, with light to moderate trade winds and scattered shallow showers covering much of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. The front is forecast to remain stationary while gradually weakening through mid-week. ...HISPANIOLA... Generally fair weather conditions prevail across the island this evening as a frontal boundary remains nearly stationary just to the west of the island across the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba. The front is not expected to move much, so partly cloudy skies and isolated showers are expected over the island during the next day or two. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid-to upper-level trough is pivoting northeastward from the western Atlantic into the central Atlantic. This will reduce support for the boundary that remains nearly stationary over the western Atlantic from 32N61W to the eastern tip of Cuba. A band of clouds and showers is seen along and up to 240 n mi of the front. Farther east, an upper-level trough extends SSW to the coast of Guyana from a low centered near 24N49W. The accompanying surface trough extends SSW from 28N51W to 16N57W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is tasking place from 15N to 30N between 42W and 50W. The remainder of the basin remains under a fairly quiet weather regime maintained by a strong subtropical ridge supported by 1030 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores near 37N35W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy