000 AXNT20 KNHC 111050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 550 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A stationary front extends across the western Caribbean Sea waters from the Windward Passage near 20N74W S-SW to 10N80W near the western Panama coast. Strong high pressure remains to the W of the front across Cuba...the NW Caribbean Sea...and much of Central America this morning resulting in near gale to gale force N winds generally S of 18N W of the front to 83W off the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The front is forecast to remain nearly stationary the next few days from the Windward Passage region to the coast of Panama with fresh to strong N winds continuing to diminish gradually through mid-week. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to 06N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N19W to the Equator near 42W. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-06N between 22W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the entire basin anchored by a 1030 mb high centered across southern Texas near 28N97W. Light to gentle N winds are noted W of 90W...and gentle to moderate N winds are noted E of 90W. The ridging will build in across the northern Gulf through Monday night with generally gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds expected across much of the basin. By Tuesday...the next weak cold front will emerge off the SE CONUS coast introducing a brief period of fresh W-NW winds to the northern water Tuesday morning and eastern waters Tuesday afternoon into the evening. The front will be quick to clear east of the basin with moderate northerly winds prevailing Wednesday into Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary feature across the basin is the stationary front extending across the western waters generating the near gale to gale force northerly winds. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring generally S of 17N between 77W-84W...and within 60 nm either side of the front N of 17N. Much of this convection is supported aloft by a divergent upper level pattern on the western periphery of an upper level anticyclone anchored over northern Colombia near 10N75W. East of the anticyclonic circulation...dry northerly flow prevails providing overall stability to the central and eastern Caribbean this morning. A few isolated showers are noted on satellite imagery E of 70W...but remain shallow...quick- moving...and embedded within gentle to moderate trades. The front is forecast to remain stationary across the western Caribbean and begin to gradually weaken through mid-week. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather conditions prevail across the island this morning while a stationary front remains analyzed across the Windward Passage region. Isolated showers and tstms are possible within 60 nm either side of the front which is expected remains stationary during the next few days begin on a weakening trend through Tuesday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS and western North Atlc waters supporting the Special Features cold front extending from 32N63W to 25N70W becoming stationary to the Windward Passage and into the SW Caribbean Sea. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored over the Gulf of Mexico and portions of eastern Mexico. Elsewhere... water vapor imagery indicates a cut-off middle to upper level low centered near 24N49W that continues to slowly retrograde. A surface trough extends from 16N54W to 29N48W providing focus for scattered showers and tstms from 19N-30N between 40W-51W. The trough is forecast to drift westward across the central Atlc through Monday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN