000 AXNT20 KNHC 101805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc waters from 30N68W S-SW to the Windward Passage near 19N75W where it becomes stationary continuing to western Jamaica and then to northern Panama. Strong high pressure continues to build west of the front across the NW and SW Caribbean Sea as well as Honduras and Nicaragua. This is resulting in gale force winds between the front and the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama. The front will remain stationary through Tuesday and will dissipate Wednesday. Gale force winds are expected to diminish by early morning Tuesday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 04N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N21W to 04N36W to 04N51W. Scattered showers are from 0N to 04N between the Prime Meridian and 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Strong surface high pressure prevails across the entire basin being anchored by a 1035 mb high over NE Mexico and a pair of two stronger high pressure centers over the NW CONUS. Deep layer dry air, as shown by CIRA LPW and Water Vapor imagery, continue to support clear skies. Otherwise, gentle to moderate N winds are basin-wide. The ridge will prevail across the Gulf through Monday ahead of the next cold front that will enter the northern basin Tuesday morning. This new front will move across Florida and the E Gulf through Wednesday supporting fresh NW winds in the NE basin. Moderate northerly winds will be across the basin Wednesday into Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature in the basin is a stationary front extending from the Windward Passage near 19N75W continuing to western Jamaica and then to northern Panama. Strong high pressure building west of the front across the NW and SW Caribbean Sea is resulting in gale-force winds between the front and the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and northern Panama. Besides the winds, scattered showers are within 105 nm either side of the front. Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage extending to Haiti and NW Dominican Republic due to the proximity of the front. Deep layer dry air support fair weather elsewhere. The front will remain stationary through Tuesday and begin to gradually weaken through mid-week. See special features section for further details. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are in the Windward Passage extending to Haiti and NW Dominican Republic due to the proximity of a stationary front to the west. This shower activity is forecast to continue through Tuesday as the front will continue to stall before dissipating Wednesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc between a middle to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS and Florida peninsula and an upper level ridge anchored over adjacent waters between Panama and Colombia. The troughing supports the Special Features cold front which extends from 30N68W S-SW to the Windward Passage near 19N75W where it becomes stationary continuing to northern Panama. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring generally within 190 nm E of the front while isolated showers are within 120 nm W of it. The remainder basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a pair of 1030's highs SW of the Azores Islands. A weakness in this ridge is analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 29N42W to 19N47W with scattered to isolated showers from 16N to 28N between 36W and 46W. The front will stall Tuesday morning while the trough is forecast to drift westward across the central Atlc through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos