000 AXNT20 KNHC 101022 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 522 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends across the SW North Atlc waters from 32N70W S-SW to eastern Cuba near 21N77W then to offshore of the coast of Nicaragua near 12N82W. Strong high pressure continues to build in N and W of the front across western Cuba...the NW Caribbean Sea...and much of Central America this morning resulting in near gale to gale force N winds generally S of 17N W of the front. As the front creeps eastward and eventually begins to stall through Monday...the near gale to gale force N winds are expected to bleed southward along the NE Honduras coast and slip along the Nicaragua coast. By Tuesday...the remaining boundary will extend from the Windward Passage region to the coast of Costa Rica with fresh to strong N winds continuing to diminish gradually through mid-week. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N18W to 04N36W to the Equator near 46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from the Equator to 05N between the Prime Meridian and 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge axis extends across northern Mexico and the Yucatan peninsula anchored by a pair of 1033 mb highs centered near 24N101W. The Special Features cold front has exited the basin and remains across the SW North Atlc and western Caribbean Sea waters this morning. Gentle to moderate N winds are noted W of 90W...and moderate to fresh winds are noted E of 90W. The ridging will build in across the northern Gulf through Monday with generally gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds expected across much of the basin. By Tuesday...the next weak cold front will emerge off the SE CONUS coast introducing a brief period of fresh W-NW winds to the north-central and eastern waters. The front will be quick to clear east of the basin with moderate northerly winds prevailing Wednesday into Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The primary feature across the basin is the cold front extending across the western waters generating the near gale to gale force northerly winds. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from 11N79W to 18N79W and along with the front supports scattered showers and tstms occurring generally between 74W-84W...on either side of the cold front. Much of this convection is supported aloft by a divergent upper level pattern with south-southwesterly flow occurring between a middle to upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico supporting the cold front and an upper level anticyclone anchored over the central Caribbean near 15N73W. East of the anticyclonic circulation...dry northerly flow prevails providing overall stability to the central and eastern Caribbean this morning. A few isolated showers are noted on satellite imagery across the NE Caribbean...but remain quick-moving and embedded within moderate to occasional fresh trades. Other isolated showers are occurring across the SE Caribbean stretching from Trinidad to the ABC Islands. The front is forecast to stall across the western Caribbean Sunday and begin to gradually weaken through mid-week. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather conditions prevail across the island this morning as a surface high centered in the central Atlc extends ridging across the area. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring across eastern Cuba and the adjacent coastal waters as a cold front is expected to stall from the Windward Passage region to the SW Caribbean through Monday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Southwesterly flow aloft is noted on water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc between a middle to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS and Florida peninsula and an upper level ridge anchored over the central Caribbean Sea. The troughing supports the Special Features cold front which extends from 32N70W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring generally from 20N-32N between 66W-77W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under the influence of a surface ridge axis extending from 32N55W to 22N72W and ridging building in west of the cold front across the Florida peninsula and far western waters off the coast of Georgia. Lastly...water vapor imagery indicates a cut-off middle to upper level low centered near 25N42W that continues to slowly retrograde. A surface trough extends from 18N43W to 30N40W providing focus for scattered showers and widely scattered tstms from 18N-30N between 31W-44W near and E of the trough axis. The trough is forecast to drift westward across the central Atlc through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN