000 AXNT20 KNHC 051205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level to upper level central Atlantic Ocean trough is supporting a 997 mb storm center, near 35N53W. A cold front is part of the entire weather system, passing through 32N50W, to 29N57W, and 28N64W. Rainshowers are possible from 24N north from 45W westward. The forecast for the next 24 hours consists of W-to- NW gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 14 feet to 23 feet, from 27N northward between the front and 59W.ATLC COLD FRONT FROM 31N51W TO 28N58W TO 28N63W. N OF 30N W OF FRONT TO 59W W TO NW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 04N30W to 02N47W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side of 06N11W 05N20W 05N34W 05N48W 07N57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... Broad middle level to upper level NW wind flow and comparatively- drier air in subsidence span the entire Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge passes through NW Florida, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. ...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KBBF, KBQX, KGUL, KATP, KVOA,. CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR and fog from the middle Texas Gulf coast southwestward to the Laredo area. MVFR-to-IFR in the deep south of Texas, and elsewhere in some parts to the north and northeast, away from the middle Texas coast area. LOUISIANA: LIFR and fog in the deep south. MISSISSIPPI: a mixture of IFR and MVFR in the south and coastal plains. ALABAMA: conditions range from IFR to MVFR in the southern and coastal areas. FLORIDA: LIFR to MVFR from Cross City westward. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Large scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow moves through the SW corner of the area, toward Hispaniola, and then curving toward the east and southeast. Middle level-to-700 mb NE wind flow covers the area that is from 14N northward between 68W and 80W. Middle level-to-700 mb E wind flow covers the area that is from 15N northward from 80W westward. Middle level-to-700 mb level cyclonic wind flow is under upper level SW wind flow, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is in the eastern Pacific Ocean along 06N/07N between 79W and beyond 86W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from 16N southward between 73W to the coast of Nicaragua. A surface trough is in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, along 16N60W 13N61W, toward NE Venezuela and Trinidad. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 14N to 17N between 57W and 68W. 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 05/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.06 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area. Large scale upper level anticyclonic wind flow moves through the SW corner of the area, toward Hispaniola, and then curving toward the east and southeast. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...VFR for Port-au-Prince in Haiti. in the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1700 feet. VFR, elsewhere. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a ridge will start along the line from Colombia to the offshore waters of eastern and central Honduras. Expect SW wind flow during day one. The SW wind flow will become westerly during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that anticyclonic wind flow at the start of the 48-hour forecast period will switch to NW, with a developing east-to-west oriented trough. A col point will end up in the central sections of the Dominican Republic. A NE-to-SW oriented trough will develop to the east of the col point, and SE-to-NW oriented trough will develop to the west of the col point. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will start with SE wind flow across the area, changing to cyclonic wind flow in Haiti, and anticyclonic wind flow in the Dominican Republic, and eventually NE wind flow at the end of day one. An anticyclonic circulation center will be just off the SE coast of Cuba at the end of day one. An inverted trough will persist across Hispaniola during day two. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 32N30W to 24N27W. The trough supports a cold front that passes through 32N29W 27N38W. A stationary front continues from 27N38W to 24N50W and 22N60W. A shear axis continues from 22N60W to 21N67W, to the waters that are just to the west of Haiti near 19N74W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers within 150 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N24W, 31N36W, 25N47W, to 21N75W. Part of this precipitation is in the waters that are to the north of the Greater Antilles and the NE Caribbean Sea islands. A surface trough is along the coast of Africa and into the Western Sahara, passing through 32N11W, through the eastern parts of the Canary Islands, to 20N18W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A surface ridge passes through 32N18W to 29N23W to 23N32W, to 20N45W and 20N63W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT