000 AXNT20 KNHC 042348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 648 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1005 mb low centered N of the discussion area near 36N57W is forecast to deepen through Tuesday while moving E-SE with a cold front expected to bring near gale to gale force W to NW winds late tonight into Tuesday generally N of 28N W of the front to 60W. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force Tuesday night. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 08N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 08N19W to 06N30W to 03N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 08W and 28W, and from 02N to 07N between 31W and 53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure extends from the eastern United States southward across the Gulf basin this evening. Flow around this high is supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds across the region. Dry air is limiting shower activity across the Gulf, except for within about 210 nm S of the NE Texas and SW Louisiana coasts, where SW flow aloft is supporting a broad band of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Over the next 24 hours the high will shift east, with SE flow expanding east to cover the entire basin by Tuesday morning. By Tuesday night, a strong cold front is expected to begin crossing the NW gulf, reaching from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico by Wednesday afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep moisture over the SW Caribbean is interacting with diffluent flow aloft to support scattered moderate convection S of 13N between 76W and 84W. A surface trough extends from 19N65W to 15N70W and is supporting isolated thunderstorms over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Another surface trough is just east of the Windward Islands and is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 240 nm west of the trough axis. The remainder of the Caribbean is generally void of convection. High pressure north of the region supports fresh to strong NE winds over the Central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the remainder of the Caribbean. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers and thunderstorms will dissipate tonight and redevelop in the daytime heating on Tuesday. High pressure will slide eastward, north of the region, which will transition winds from NE to E over the Atlantic exposures, increasing to around 20 kt on Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure centered over the eastern United States dominates the SW N Atlantic with NE winds and generally fair weather this evening. A cold front enters the area of discussion over the eastern Atlantic near 31N34W and extends to 27N41W to 24N50W, where it transitions to a stationary front that extends to 23N60W to 20N71W. Scattered thunderstorms are within 60 nm N and 120 nm S of the stationary front between 54W and 68W, and within 60 nm E of the cold front N of 26N. A vigorous low pressure system N of the discussion area near 36N57W and associated cold front will spread gale force winds over a portion of the central Atlantic S of 31N beginning late tonight. Please refer to the special features section for more details. Ahead of this low, a pre- frontal trough extends from 30N45W to 27N57W. No convection is noted. High pressure centered over Europe extends SW and dominates the remainder of the eastern Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto