000 AXNT20 KNHC 031634 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1134 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 06N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N20W to 04N34W to 07N51W. A surface trough extends from 06N55W to 13N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-13N between 36W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicates mostly dry and stable conditions aloft as broad middle to upper level ridging influences much of the basin this afternoon. However a middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery over northern Mexico and the Texas Big Bend region supporting increasing cloudiness across the NW Gulf. At the surface...a weak stationary front extends across northern Florida to 29N90W with isolated showers possible within 45 nm either side of the front. Elsewhere...a surface trough is analyzed across the SW Gulf waters providing focus for isolated showers possible S of 25N W of 95W. Otherwise...surface ridging prevails with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds occurring on the southern periphery of ridging anchored across the Ohio and Tennessee River valleys. S-SE return flow is expected to re-establish itself on Monday across much of the basin with the next cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts late Tuesday into Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level ridge axis extends from over northern Colombia and the SW Caribbean NW to over NW Caribbean. Westerly flow prevails east of the ridge axis over much of the remainder of the basin providing overall dry and stable conditions aloft. One surface feature of note is a surface trough extending from near Bonaire NE to near the US/UK Virgin Islands. Isolated showers are possible within 90 nm either side of the boundary this afternoon. Elsewhere across the basin outside of the influence of the surface trough...moderate to fresh NE winds prevail and are expected to persist through tonight. This wind field is expected to gradually strengthen through Monday night with fresh to strong trades forecast across a large portion of the basin between 64W-82W for much of next week. High pressure anchored across the SW North Atlc region through the week ahead and the associated pressure gradient is expected to impact the basin with these enhanced trades. ...HISPANIOLA... Generally clear skies and fair weather conditions prevail across the island as dry westerly flow aloft remains in place over the area. A remnant frontal boundary lies to the N in the adjacent coastal waters from 22N65W to 20N70W. Isolated showers and possible isolated tstms are expected to remain N of 20N this afternoon into the evening. Little change is expected through Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West-northwesterly flow aloft prevails over much of the SW North Atlc with a middle to upper level trough moving off the Mid-Atlc coast. The troughing supports a 1017 mb low centered off the coast of North Carolina near 34N76W with the associated cold front extending SW to 31N79W becoming stationary to the Florida coast near Jacksonville. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring N of 29N between 72W-78W. Farther east...another middle to upper level trough is noted over the central Atlc with axis along 60W that supports a 1004 mb low centered near 32N48W The associated cold front extends from the low SW to 27N50W to 23N60W becoming stationary to the northern coast of Hispaniola near 20N70W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 23N between 35W and the cold front boundary. Additional isolated showers and tstms are occurring in the vicinity of the stationary from from 20N-24N between 58W-72W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high centered W of Canary Island near 29N24W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN